Major Conservative Super Pac Releases First Anti-Trans Ads, Rehashing Failed Strategy

A major Conservative Super Pac, the Senate Leadership Fund, has released its first set of ads targeting Democratic Senators in swing states. Most feature anti-trans messages.

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On Sept. 1, the Senate Leadership Fund, a major conservative super PAC, released its first attack ads targeting Democratic senators in swing states: Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. The group plans to spend more than $80 million in Ohio alone. While the high-dollar ad spend is extreme and notable, what stands out even more is the message the super PAC has chosen to use in its attempt to sway voters: attacks on the Democratic Senators' support for transgender people.

The strategy is not a new one: in 2022, the American Principles Project and several other PACs spent more than $50 million on anti-trans attack ads. The results did not validate the approach—Republicans suffered significant defeats in states where messaging focused heavily on transgender issues. In 2023, similar outcomes followed, with the loss of Moms for Liberty candidates in school board races nationwide. Despite these setbacks, major Republican donors appear undeterred, continuing to feature this message in the 2024 elections.

The first attack ad, which targets Sherrod Brown in Ohio, states that “Brown backed Biden, allowing transgender biological men in women’s sports, and supported allowing puberty blockers and sex change surgeries for minor children.” You can view the attack ad here:

Although it is unclear which specific policy position or vote the attack ad is responding to, Ohio did pass a bill this year banning transgender youth from playing sports according to their gender identity. In recent years, transgender individuals have faced restrictions in various sports, from darts to disc golf, dancing, and even chess. Similarly, Ohio's bill also sought to ban gender-affirming care for transgender youth, but it was vetoed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who explained his decision: “While the parents [and] doctors inform those decisions, it is the parents who know their child best… Were Ohio to pass HB68, Ohio would be saying that the state knows what is better, what is medically best for the child, than the two people who love that child the most: the parents.”

That veto was later overridden by Republican House and Senate members in Ohio after pressure from former President Donald Trump and then-Republican presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis, forcing many families with transgender youth to flee the state.

Importantly, gender affirming care saves lives. A Cornell review of more than 51 studies determined that trans care significantly improves the mental health of transgender people. One major study even noted a 73% lower suicidality among trans youth who began care. The evidence around transgender care led to a historic policy resolution condemning bans on gender affirming care by the American Psychological Association, the largest psychological association in the world, which was voted on by representatives of its 157,000 members.

The second attack ad targets Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, stating that he “voted to let biological men compete in girls sports.” You can see that ad here:

Both senators are currently leading in the polls, with Bob Casey holding a +3 advantage according to polling averages and Sherrod Brown holding a +5 lead. These leads are stronger than those seen during previous attempts to use anti-trans attack ads against swing-state senators. For instance, in 2022, Herschel Walker ran an ad with Riley Gaines in Georgia targeting Raphael Warnock. In that race, Walker had a +1.5 lead in the polls but still lost, despite significant anti-trans attacks on Warnock, who ultimately won his campaign.

Recent polling from Gallup, Navigator, and the LA Times indicates declining public support for anti-transgender laws, with large majorities of respondents viewing these measures as distractions and opposing bans on trans youth care. Be it Michigan's decisive Democratic victory, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, or the legislative races in Pennsylvania, anti-trans attacks have failed to swing elections in Republicans favor. So compelling are these Democratic victories that they led to the Republican chair in Michigan blaming their loss of all 3 branches of government on the fact that they spent more money on anti-trans ads than bread-and-butter economic issues: “Tudor’s efforts focused largely on Republican red meat issues, in hopes of inspiring a 2020 like showing at the polls,” Cordes wrote. “There were more ads on transgender sports than inflation, gas prices and bread and butter issues that could have swayed independent voters. We did not have a turn out problem middle of the road voters simply didn’t like what Tudor was selling.”

Despite this, Republican leadership in Congress has increasingly prioritized targeting transgender people, even threatening to shut down the government over the issue. Former President Donald Trump is also leaning into the issue, falsely claiming that teachers are performing sex change surgeries on children and sending them home as a different gender, as he stated in a recent sit-down with Moms for Liberty. Should Republicans continue focusing on transgender issues, it may contribute to the ongoing narrative of Republican “weirdness,” a contrast that Vice Presidential Candidate Tim Walz highlights with his assertion that Democrats aim to “mind your own damn business” regarding personal choices that families make. The willingness of Republicans to spend tens of millions of dollars targeting transgender people could ultimately backfire and sink Republican candidates if similar dynamics play out in the 2024 election.