NORC Poll: 77% Say Elected Officials Use Transgender Issues As A Distraction
A new NORC poll shows support for protecting transgender access to medical care and finds that 77% of people in the United States think politicians use trans people as a distraction.
A new poll released by NORC and the Los Angeles Times reveals that 77% of U.S. citizens believe politicians are using debates over transgender and nonbinary people as a distraction from more pressing priorities. The same poll finds that majorities oppose forced outing laws for transgender youth. A slim majority indicated their support for protecting access to gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth when their parents and doctors feel those treatments are appropriate, though results were somewhat mixed depending on how the question was worded. These numbers align with several recent polls indicating that while some people may have nuanced opinions on transgender issues, Americans do not view these concerns as worthy of lawmakers' attention.
Seventy-seven percent of respondents agreed with the statement, “Elected officials are mostly using debates over transgender and nonbinary people to distract attention from more pressing priorities.” The remainder agreed with the statement, “Issues regarding transgender people are an important priority for elected officials.” In the last three years, over 1,000 anti-LGBTQ+ laws have been proposed across the United States, most of them targeting transgender people; few other issues receive as much attention in statehouses across the country. These poll results suggest that spending significant time targeting transgender people may not be a popular course of action.
These results align with several recent polls. In March of this year, 71% of South Carolina voters indicated that the government should not intervene in LGBTQ+ gender-affirming healthcare decisions for those under 18 years old. Another recent poll found that 76% of respondents believe decisions regarding gender-affirming care for transgender youth belong to parents or doctors, not state lawmakers. Similar findings were replicated in a poll of Kentucky voters and a Pathfinder Opinion Research poll that indicated 53% of voters would be motivated to oppose a candidate who frequently spoke about restricting access to gender-affirming care for trans youth, compared to 25% who would be motivated to support such a candidate. Likewise, a Fox News poll in 2023 indicated that only 1% of people identified transgender issues as a top priority, and 83% of voters believed that political attacks on transgender children are a problem.
The new survey also asked questions about individual issues, such as gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth and adults, as well as forced outing policies for transgender youth in schools. A majority of respondents indicated that schools should “respect students’ wishes of not telling parents that they identify as transgender.” This support was higher among Democrats than Republicans, but even 32% of Republicans indicated they oppose forced outing policies.
When it comes to gender affirming medical care, the results were mixed depending on how the question was worded. When asked if they would support state laws that prevent access for minors to gender affirming care, 54% answered in favor with 44% in opposition. However, when asked if they would support laws that protect access for minors to gender affirming care 50% answered in favor and 49% answered against.
Confusing and contradictory results on support for gender-affirming care highlight a larger narrative about Americans' complex opinions on transgender issues: a lack of salience on the matter. People's views on transgender individuals seem not to be firmly held and can vary significantly with simple changes in wording. Most importantly, several polls indicate that Americans do not want legislators spending time on this topic and believe these decisions should be made by parents, patients, and doctors. These findings suggest that while Americans may have uncertainties about transgender issues, they believe these are personal decisions for families and individuals, not matters for legislative action.
The idea that transgender issues are a distraction is supported by the heavy electoral losses where these issues have been made front and center. In 2023, 70% of Moms For Liberty and 1776 Project candidates lost their races after campaigning heavily on book bans and bathroom bans targeting transgender people. That same year, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection despite vetoing the state’s gender-affirming care ban; he won by an even larger margin than in his initial election, despite significant funding for anti-trans ads. Similar victories for those supporting transgender people occurred in elections where transgender issues were a major focus, including the Virginia legislature elections, the Arizona Governor’s race, the Michigan legislature elections, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, the Walker-Warnock Senate race, and dozens more. All of these races were significantly influenced by anti-trans political expenditures and narratives; Democrats were victorious in each of these contests.
Going into 2024, a number of elections will feature similar dynamics. With over 1,000 anti-LGBTQ+ policies pushed in the last two years, many legislators will face their first election since passing anti-transgender legislation. Perhaps sensing voter sentiment, several state legislatures, including those in Georgia, West Virginia, and Florida, have pulled back on targeting LGBTQ+ people this year, with bills failing to pass. Similarly, ballot initiatives were rejected in California and Arizona, highlighting Republicans' wavering commitment to these policies.
Nevertheless, major Republican candidates, including Presidential Candidate Donald Trump, have issued strong statements of intent to target transgender people if they win, suggesting the issue could be pivotal in 2024 election campaigns. If this poll is correct, focusing on such issues could harm candidates who prioritize targeting transgender people.
You can view the poll report here as well as the toplines.
A good chunk of the same people who think that we are being used as a distraction still will not vote for equality. Ergo, many of them don’t care..
Thanks Erin - very timely and important article. It has long seemed that politicians use trans issues as a distraction - but they do it because it’s throwing red meat to their base and getting them votes. It’s really a form of social contagion - once the first states (generally southern ones) started passing anti-trans laws, nearby GOP-controlled states said, sure let’s do the same thing, and so on. And of course the role of right wing think tanks in such legislation cannot be ignored. That is why anti-GAC legislation tends to read the same across the different states. As everyone knows, there is HUGE amount at stake in the national elections in November - and unfortunately, a lot of voters vote mainly on economic issues even if they also express support for LGBT rights. So sadly, we cannot count on people’s support if inflation remains high and people cannot afford their groceries, and they want to vote against whoever the incumbents are.