NYT Battleground Poll: Swing State Voters Believe Society Should Accept Trans People As Their Gender

A new battleground state poll from the New York Times of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin likely voters shows they believe society should accept trans people as their gender.

According to a New York Times/Siena battleground state poll, voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin overwhelmingly believe that society should accept transgender people as the gender they identify with. These same voters also support Democratic Senate candidates in these states, despite tens of millions of dollars spent on anti-trans advertisements targeting them. This data raises doubts about the effectiveness of such ads in swaying voters toward Republicans, as similar efforts have failed in the past. The numbers come at a time when national anti-trans ad campaigns are being launched, aimed at Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, 56% of voters agreed with the statement, "Society should accept transgender people as having the gender they identify with," while 34% agreed with the statement, "Society should NOT accept transgender people as having the gender they identify with." Support for transgender acceptance was even higher among women (64% to 28%) and Independents (58% to 28%). Even rural and small-town voters in battleground states indicated, by a narrow margin (45% to 43%), that transgender people should be accepted as their identified gender, indicating that assumptions about small towns in battleground states could be challenged as acceptance continues to improve.

You can see the full crosstabs here:

Transgender polling crosstabs, New York Times

These latest numbers cast doubt on the Republican strategy of using anti-transgender laws and advertisements to turn out voters in general elections. In all three states, the Democratic Senate candidate is currently leading. Harris is also leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and is within the margin of error in Ohio. This includes Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, who has been heavily targeted by anti-trans ads yet leads in the poll, 47% to 43%. Additionally, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is ahead of her Republican opponent, 50% to 43%, and Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin is leading her opponent, 47% to 42%.

The polls come amidst news that Republicans have gone all-in on anti-transgender advertising in the past month. In September, one of the most prolific Republican Senate super PACs, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced it would spend $80 million in Ohio alone, far surpassing anti-trans ad spending in previous years. The majority of these ads target the aforementioned senators on transgender issues. For example, one ad in Wisconsin claims, “Tammy Baldwin supported puberty blockers and sex change surgeries for kids, and would force women’s shelters to admit biological men. She’s too extreme for Wisconsin.” Another ad targets Sherrod Brown, stating, “Sherrod Brown supported allowing sex change surgeries for kids.” The group has produced nearly 40 anti-transgender ads in battleground states and tight Senate races, including Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with some readers reporting hearing the ads very often in those states.

See this ad against Senator Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin:

Republicans have also launched national anti-trans advertisements targeting Kamala Harris. The Trump campaign has released a new ad titled “Kamala is for They/Them,” which highlights Harris’s purported support for gender-affirming care for incarcerated transgender individuals. Reports from readers suggest these ads are airing during football games nationwide, signaling that the Trump campaign is doubling down on an anti-transgender platform, hoping it will deliver a political advantage in the upcoming election.

The latest New York Times poll, however, shows that the strategy may not be a winning one. Democratic Senate candidates are up in all three states polled, with Harris even coming within the margin of error in Wisconsin. The numbers in Michigan and Wisconsin appear stable as well.

Polling on specific transgender issues—such as sports participation and gender-affirming care for youth—often varies widely depending on how questions are framed. However, a few constants have emerged across nearly all polls. People generally see the issue as low in importance and believe it does not impact their daily lives, ranking LGBTQ+/Trans issues among the lowest issues of importance to their vote and calling them a distraction in recent polls. While many have personal opinions about transgender care for youth, most do not want politicians legislating it, preferring that these decisions be left to parents and families. Additionally, there is growing opposition to outright bans on transgender care for youth, as seen in the latest Gallup poll.

Similarly, Republicans do not have a strong track record when running on transgender issues. In Virginia, Governor Glenn Youngkin made anti-trans ads a central part of the push for Republican control of the state legislature—yet Democrats gained control instead. In Michigan, Republicans attributed their 2022 loss of the state trifecta to focusing millions of dollars on anti-trans ads, rather than on bread-and-butter issues. In Wisconsin, Republicans spent millions running ads against Judge Janet Protaseiwicz, who won her election by a much wider margin than expected. Likewise, in 2023, candidates backed by Moms for Liberty and Project 1776, who ran on anti-trans platforms for school board positions, lost 70% of their races.

While these ads are unlikely to secure victories for Republican candidates, they may still play a crucial role in attracting large donors. For example, it was recently revealed that billionaire Elon Musk contributed up to $50 million to groups running anti-transgender ads in 2022, despite their widespread failure. He has also pledged to lobby for the imprisonment of doctors who provide gender-affirming care. These ads, then, may serve more as a tool for shaping public opinion against transgender people than as a genuine strategy to win elections.

However, if Republicans lose for a third consecutive year after making anti-trans ads a central part of their platform, they may start to question whether this approach is politically effective.