No "Social Contagion" - Gender Transition Rates Reach Equilibrium In New Study
Despite claims of "exploding rates of being trans" and "rapid social contagion," a new Swedish study seems to hint that we have reached an equilibrium of gender transitions.
In recent years, anti-trans lobbyists and politicians have claimed that there is an “explosion” in transgender identification, claiming that identification as transgender was due to an ongoing “social contagion.” A New York Times article reported on a “sharp rise” in transgender young people in the United States. In Montana, Senator Tom McGillvray stood and argued for a gender affirming care ban, citing the “explosion” in young trans people. Even in the United States Congress, Dr. Jennifer Bauwens, representing the right-wing Christian Family Research Council, cited a “steep increase” in trans people, blaming the “increase” on social media. Now, a new study in Sweden appears to show gender transition rates appear to have leveled off among all age cohorts.
Social contagion theory claims that there is a “massive increase” in people identifying as transgender, and that this increase is due to “social contagion,” or people essentially “catching” being transgender from one another. While the social contagion theory does not have evidence when it comes to transgender identification—for instance, most trans people experience gender dysphoria years before coming out—it is accurate that more transgender individuals are coming out now than in previous decades.
However, this new study suggests that the rates may now be stabilizing. The study, released as a preprint in the Social Science Research Network, looked at over 7,500 legal gender changes and dysphoria diagnoses in Sweden and determined that the rates “peaked in 2018, with no evidence of further increases” and have since stabilized. This is also reflected in the Youth Risk Behavior Social Survey showing a modest decrease in trans identification after 2018 in the United States. The rates of transgender identification no longer see to be “exploding exponentially,” despite what anti-trans activists claim.
The leveling off is significant because it closely mirrors another major event where another once-discouraged trait became slowly accepted by society: left-handedness. In the early 1900s, the rates of left-handedness hovered between 3-4%. Left-handedness rates then “skyrocketed” to 12% where it has leveled off ever since. This was, of course, not caused by a “massive social contagion” of left-handedness. Rather, increases in acceptance led to people feeling comfortable using their left hand. In the 1940s, anti-left-handedness researcher Abram Blau decried the “cultural influences” of left-handedness and the “progressive campaigns” of allowing the child “to be free to choose the side for himself.”
In an article released in 1979, Dr. Bernard McKenna said of the growth of left-handedness, "We used to call everybody a deviant who didn't conform. We just eventually learned better. There was recognition by medical authorities that left-handedness was normal and that tying the hand up in a child often caused stuttering."
Sound familiar?
You can see the growth in left-handedness here:
Many have hypothesized a similar trend with the prevalence of transgender individuals. In past decades, being identified as transgender was viewed extremely negatively. Young trans individuals often faced conversion therapy or institutionalization, while adults encountered substantial gatekeeping around care. However, in the last decade, research highlighting the importance of allowing transgender individuals to transition has grown, alongside a significant increase in social acceptance. The apparent "increase" in transgender individuals can likely be largely attributed to the removal of many of these negative barriers. If this trend continues, we can anticipate a peak in gender transition rates as individuals previously barred from care gain access. These rates should then stabilize, reflecting the actual proportion of transgender individuals in society. This study shows we may be seeing that stabilization now.
There are several key caveats to consider regarding this study. Firstly, it focuses solely on legal gender marker changes and diagnoses of dysphoria. Many transgender individuals do not receive a dysphoria diagnosis, and obtaining legal gender marker changes can be challenging. Secondly, the study examines Sweden, where the barriers to accessing care differ from those in the United States. Consequently, the stabilization rates in both countries may vary as their populations respond to these different barriers. Additionally, some people under the transgender umbrella may not pursue medical transition, struggle to obtain a dysphoria diagnosis, choose not to seek a diagnosis, or may not opt for legal gender marker changes. The "rate of transition" could vary among these groups. Finally, the increasing discrimination against transgender individuals likely influences the leveling off; the true prevalence rate might not have been reached yet.
With those caveats, this new study provides an important rebuttal to the idea that transgender identities are “spreading explosively” through “rapid onset gender dysphoria and social contagion.” Instead, transgender people appear to be able to come out more now than ever before, and the growth in transgender people coming out is something celebrate, not fear.
Three observations:
One, people who have paid attention to the science and to other examples of levels of something increasing with social acceptance and then leveling off are unanimously going "DUH!"
Another is do not be surprised if the reactionaries reply to this study by claiming that "It was around 2018 when we started saying we wouldn't put up with this crap and the growth stopped, proving we were right! Social contagion! Trans ideology! SAVE THE CHILDREN!"
The last is that although most of the artificially-created social panic has been over transgender women, the sharpest increases in diagnosis and legal change in the years before 2018 were for transgender men, the difference pointing to the sexist and sex-obsessed nature of the opposition to justice.
Time will tell us what is going on. I completely understand why conservatives are in a panic (literally and not in any way justified) and I get why we as trans people and our allies want hard sciences to back us when we tell them to fuck off.
Some people can't handle social change and the rest of us just want to be left to be our best most wonderful and beautifully realized selves.
It is an interesting study perhaps showing a glimpse of something but what?
I whole heartedly agree that the social contagion thing is laughable except that underlying it is a very dangerous message, "trans isn't normal and it is unwanted/dangerous!"
Like left handedness, we are and have been suppressed in who feels safe in being out.
I agree that we aren't there yet in the US or anywhere else (except this glorious place I go in my imagination when things get tough). Just think of all the trans kids being raised in these conservative families/communities. For many, it is going to take at least a decade or two (if ever) to get over that kind of hate and oppression - even if the world around them becomes more supportive and accepting.
From the "left handedness"graph, the change was profound and it took at least forty years (I was in elementary school in the US in the 60s/70s and being left handed wasn't something being actively discouraged but teachers weren't yet comfortable with left handed students). The entire graph of the Swedish study covers 40 years. In another 40-80 years we will likely have the same sort of perspective that we have on being left handed. A more direct comparison would be sexuality - being gay is a very different thing now than what it was in 1960 but there are still kids being taught to reject that part of themselves and to reject others. The sexuality curve isn't flat yet. It's getting closer and I really wish we were there but being gay still involves "coming out" and not just being. We'll likely know we're there with sexuality and gender when people no longer know what you mean if you said you were "coming out."
"Sally came out to us last week as left handed. The family is adjusting and generally supportive! We're all thrilled that she has such a great doctor/counselor etc."