This election has been heavily defined by hate targeted at the transgender community. From Republicans pushing anti-trans legislation to even some Democrats releasing ads targeting transgender people, it is hard to escape the constant stream of misinformation about transgender people. Now, however, there may be some pushback against anti-transgender policies and ads. A new poll from The 19th and YouGov finds that more Americans oppose bans on transgender youth care than support them, with the gap narrowing even among Republicans, and that the public now says Republicans talk about transgender issues too much just as often as it says Democrats do, a notable finding given that previous polling had the public faulting Democrats more.
"Gender-affirming care for transgender minors includes any kind of care designed to support and affirm their gender identity, including therapy, consultations with doctors, hormones or puberty blockers, other medication, and, rarely, surgery. Do you favor or oppose lawmakers banning or restricting gender-affirming care for transgender minors?" the question asks. In response, 45% say they oppose lawmakers banning gender-affirming care for trans youth, while only 38% say they support such bans; 17% are not sure. The finding is notable as election-year advertising ramps up around healthcare for transgender youth, and it comes in the wake of severe attacks on that care by the Trump administration.
Perhaps more interesting, however, are the crosstabs on this question. Among Democrats, opposition to banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth runs 16 points ahead of support, 50% to 34%. Independents oppose the bans by 10 points, 46% to 36%. And Republicans, who one might expect to be nearly unanimous in favor of such bans, give a far more divided answer: only 50% favor them, while 42% oppose them. These numbers are striking given how nearly universally Republican officials have fallen in line behind targeting transgender youth in the United States in recent years.
Also notable are the answers on how much each party talks about transgender people. One long-running line of criticism of Democrats has been that they talk about transgender people too much. This poll shows that finding has changed. Now, 37% of respondents say the Republican Party talks about transgender people too much, exactly the same share as say the Democratic Party does. Given the enormous volume of anti-trans ads Republicans are running right now, it seems likely that those ads are backfiring, and that the public no longer sees Democrats as the party that can't stop talking about transgender people.
The people running the ads seem to know it. In a memo to Republican candidates on messaging for the 2026 elections, the American Principles Project, one of the chief architects of anti-trans advertising, states that pressing such attacks "may not be sufficient" for Republicans to win the midterms. That read is consistent with the generic ballot, where Democrats continue to surge ahead, with multiple polls released in recent weeks showing them leading by double digits.
Moving forward, Democrats would be well-advised not to fear the impact of anti-transgender advertising. While some have decided the right approach is to release ads of their own distancing themselves from transgender people, polling continues to show that transgender issues have low salience among voters, and this poll is no exception. Republicans' ability to weaponize transgender issues against Democratic candidates appears to be faltering, and the massive blitz of ads they are leading may be doing their candidates more harm than good to their own candidates.
“polling continues to show that transgender issues have low salience among voters”
This really captures how we’re being used as scapegoats and distraction from real topics that impact Americans.
Delving into the crosstabs, it's strange that support for bans seems to increase for younger ages.
Not sure what to make of that, it seems counterintuitive
Great news however!