Harris Surges On Economy Voters In Swing States As Trump Fixates On Anti-Trans Ads
The latest polls from swing states reveal that Trump may be repeating the same mistake that cost Republicans many races in 2022.
In 2022, Republicans in Michigan made a major mistake: They spent more money on anti-transgender ads than on reinforcing economic messaging. As a result, Democrats won a trifecta in the state for the first time in 40 years. Now, there are signs Republicans may be repeating the same error. A new set of polls in the crucial "blue wall" swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania shows that Harris is matching Trump on the economy. This is happening as Trump spends more money on anti-trans advertising than immigration, housing, and the economy combined.
According to the well-respected Marist poll, Harris is nearly tying Trump on the economy in Pennsylvania and Michigan and has come within five points in Wisconsin. She leads Trump in all three states, polling at plus two in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and plus three in Michigan. The numbers were highlighted by James Singer, rapid response advisor to the Harris campaign, who noted that she had closed the gap on the economy, and shifted independent voters by 19 points in the state of Pennsylvania.
“This has been the long story of the Harris paid media campaign — just grinding on this economic message (anti-price gouging, Medicare covering home care, etc) for months as different shiny objects hit the news cycle,” said political analyst David Weigel on Twitter.
Harris's late-campaign surge comes as Trump has flooded the airwaves with anti-trans advertisements during major sporting events. Meanwhile, Republican Senate candidates have also received tens of millions of dollars in support from groups like the Senate Leadership Fund, which has blanketed these swing states with ads about transgender bathroom usage, sports, and health care. Spending on transgender issues dwarfs all others; according to national political reporter Marc Caputo, the Trump campaign has spent more money on anti-trans advertisements than on any other issue, surpassing topics like the economy and immigration.
“I will never understand the Trump strategy of spending the entire month of october ignoring the economy and instead running ads exclusively on trans people existing and immigrant caravans,” posted Andrew Lawrence, deputy director of rapid response for Media Matters.
Lawrence has good reason to be stumped; Republicans have attempted this same playbook in Michigan and many other states before. In 2022, Republicans spent $50 million on anti-trans advertising. One of the primary focuses of that spending was Michigan, where they used the ads to target Democrats as well as Issue 3, an abortion rights amendment. This is similar to how Republicans are targeting abortion rights amendments today by saying reproductive freedom will codify "transgender healthcare" into law. These ads failed; Issue 3 passed, and Democrats took the trifecta in the state for the first time in 40 years. They faced similar losses in every other swing state where similar ads were deployed.
Michigan Republican Party Chief of Staff Paul Cordes, reacting to the 2022 loss, pointed to the relentless focus on anti-trans ads as the reason they failed to sell voters on their economic message. He stated, “There were more ads on transgender sports than inflation, gas prices and bread-and-butter issues that could have swayed independent voters. We did not have a turnout problem—middle-of-the-road voters simply didn’t like what Tudor was selling.”
The movement towards Harris on the economy is notable and not limited to the recently released Marist poll. A Time Magazine analysis of polls found similar results, and a Fox News poll released on Wednesday found Harris “nearly even” on the economy, down only two points in Michigan, whereas Trump was up 11 earlier in the year.
One possible mechanism by which anti-transgender ads hurt the Republican Party is that they may be a trap. While there is some evidence that voters are uncertain about transgender issues depending on how the question is worded, most polling shows that voters are tired of anti-trans advertisements and view politicians who make anti-trans platforms a major part of their campaign negatively. While Republican candidates may believe the ads are effective, the relentless focus by the party on anti-trans ads during sporting events and multiple commercial breaks may have the opposite effect, turning voters off and even playing into Democratic messaging, with Republicans appearing "weird."
As the election enters its final stretch in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, reinforcing such messaging is likely not what Republican candidates want to be doing. Trump has lost his edge on economic messaging, with the issue—like all others—taking a backseat to ads demonizing transgender people. One thing is certain: with the election looming and no sign that the campaign is tapping the brakes on targeting transgender people, this strategy will feature prominently in future political postmortems as a case study on the viability of demonizing trans people for political gain.
If we win next week, I predict that the GOP will learn nothing from their loss.
After all, they only have a platform of reaction, of anti this or that. We're just one of their currently highlighted targets, along with immigrants and cis women.
May they someday sink into the swamp of irrelevancy.
I hope this is all true. Living through the ads in Michigan has been awful. I've been knocking on doors for the past few weeks and most voters want to talk about the economy and immigration. Only a couple have brought up trans issues.