New Poll: Likely Voters Are Tired Of Anti-Trans Ads
A new poll run by Data For Progress found that voters are more likely to support candidates who support trans rights. People also believe political attack ads have gotten out of hand.
In recent weeks, Republicans have spent nearly $100 million on anti-trans advertisements across the United States. However, a new poll released Thursday by Data for Progress suggests that this strategy might not be paying off. The latest data shows that likely voters are more inclined to support a candidate who stands for transgender rights. Additionally, these voters expressed negative views about anti-trans attack ads, indicating they would prefer politicians to focus on other pressing issues.
When voters are asked whether they are more inclined to support a candidate who backs transgender rights or one who opposes them, voters overwhelmingly choose the candidate in favor of transgender rights, by a margin of 21 points. This trend holds true among Independents, with a 19-point preference. Even 22% of Republicans indicate they are more likely to support a candidate who favors trans rights—a significantly higher percentage than the share of Democrats who would back a candidate opposing them.
Furthermore, voters showed frustration with the wave of anti-trans advertisements. When asked if they thought political attack ads against the transgender community have gotten mean spirited and out of hand, far more voters agree than disagree (+28 points). This finding holds true for independents (+23 points) as well, with even 31% of Republicans finding that there were too many political attack ads.
Likely voters also indicated that they did not find transgender issues a significant voting priority for them, a common result in polling. A large majority believed politicians should focus less on transgender topics and more on key priorities like the economy and inflation, with a 68-point margin. This sentiment held across the political spectrum, with Republicans most likely to agree, registering a 77-point margin. Numerous polls have shown similar trends, suggesting that while people may hold opinions on transgender issues, these opinions rarely influence voting decisions.
These results come as prominent Republicans continue to focus heavily on political attack ads targeting transgender people. Donald Trump has made anti-trans rhetoric a central theme in the closing arguments of his campaign, focusing on incarcerated transgender individuals and falsely claiming that children are undergoing sex change surgeries in schools. Meanwhile, Republican PACs like the Senate Leadership Fund have flooded the airwaves in swing states with anti-trans attack ads aimed at Democratic Senate candidates. Altogether, nearly $100 million has been spent on these ads in the past two months.
Democrats have responded to the ads in various ways. Some, like Texas Senate candidate Colin Allred, have softened their support for transgender rights, while others have remained mostly silent. At the top of the ticket, however, both Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have spoken out in defense of transgender people in recent weeks. In an interview with NBC, Harris emphasized that decisions regarding gender-affirming care should be made between patients and doctors. Walz, meanwhile, condemned the attack ads as being “meant to demonize a minority” and went on to passionately defend queer and trans youth.
This new poll should bolster confidence in candidates who choose to stand firm. While anti-trans ads and massive spending might seem intimidating, especially to those less experienced in discussing transgender issues, the data shows that voters are largely on their side. Even voters who hold differing views on transgender policies like sports understand that this isn't the issue driving their vote. Instead, as they watch their evening football and see a barrage of political ads targeting transgender people, they likely just find it irrelevant, out of touch with the issues they care about, and perhaps even a bit “weird.”
This is both tremendously encouraging news and superb assembly of it in one post; great work, Erin!
It also reinforces the critical importance of being strategic about this election (not that we have much time left to do anything, but there is still a little). Transphobic (transmisic) candidates should be rejected out of hand, but I don't think there is a single one running under the Democratic label. Some Democrats (Allred and Sherrod Brown being examples) may be lukewarm and far from our ideal, but a Democratically-controlled Senate can do useful things for us; a Republican one will, on the other hand, actively hunt us with intent to do grievous harm.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, I would refer to the example of Lyndon Johnson and civil rights. A Black person in the U.S. in 1964 who knew anything about Johnson would not have had a very positive opinion of him, to put it mildly. But he got that landmark 1965 Civil Rights law passed, and Barry Goldwater sure as hell would not have.
A new poll of voters in my household, taken just now by me, shows that 100% of voters in my household who are me, and also 100% of non-voting cats in residence, are thoroughly sick of the Republican Party's shit.