American Principles Project Warns Republicans That Targeting Trans People “May Not Be Sufficient” To Win 2026

The organization is one of the leading anti-trans political organizations in the United States.

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For anyone following anti-transgender advertising in political elections, there is one group that stands out among the rest for its long history in this arena: the American Principles Project. The organization could be considered the progenitor of the phenomenon of Republican politicians targeting transgender people in political ads to win elections, with its first ad airing in 2019 targeting Andy Beshear, who won that race. In the years that followed, the organization spent tens of millions of dollars on races across the United States and has been central to spreading anti-transgender panic and the laws that follow it. Now, the organization has released a new memo to candidates in 2026, announcing that while it still believes these ads are important for Republicans to run, they "may not be sufficient" for Republicans to win in 2026, indicating that even one of the most anti-transgender organizations in the country is realizing the trans panic button may be losing its impact on voters.

“There is no question that Republicans face significant headwinds in the upcoming midterms. Past political trends alone dictate that the party of the sitting president typically loses congressional seats, regardless of the environment. The current conventional wisdom seems to favor a similar outcome this November. But even at this late hour, the past need not be prologue. While Democrats may be on the offensive, recent message testing we have conducted in several key swing states suggest that they remain vulnerable on culture-war issues, particularly in their support for transgender ideology and so-called ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion’ (DEI) policies. Still, pressing the advantage on these issues alone, while important, may not be sufficient. Republicans must also make the case to families on what they plan to do to help improve their economic standing,” reads the memo from the American Principles Project.

The memo, first reported on by Oriana González at the Washington Sun, reveals what is likely growing distrust in the effectiveness of anti-transgender advertising as we move into what is shaping up to be a wave election for Democrats. Democrats currently hold an 8.7-point advantage in the Real Clear Politics generic ballot average, which, if it holds, would be a historic margin. According to New York magazine, Democrats gained 41 seats in the 2018 election with similar polling. Though there are fewer winnable seats for Democrats this year, most expect them to win back the House and potentially even contend for the Senate.

Even before the current potential wave election took shape, recent elections indicated that the anti-trans panic is no longer effective. In Virginia's election last year, Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears blanketed the airwaves with anti-trans ads, with 57% of all of her ads targeting transgender people. In a race that was supposed to be close, Earle-Sears lost by 15 points. Likewise, similar ads went up in New Jersey against Mikie Sherrill, who won by 13 points in a race that was similarly expected to be neck and neck. Anti-trans ads also failed to flip Wisconsin Supreme Court seats in three consecutive races.

In an election dominated by rising gas prices and a struggling economy, voters may be hard-pressed to care about transgender issues when their pocketbooks are directly affected. Ad campaigns such as those currently being pushed by Republican organizations, and even by some Democratic candidates, risk turning off voters who see the issue as irrelevant to their bottom line. Despite this, more than $100 million is still being pushed into these races targeting transgender people, led mainly by Elon Musk, whose America PAC is behind an intense ad blitz on the issue. Republicans may come to regret Musk's involvement, however, as the right-wing figure has become increasingly unpopular among voters who may view his involvement as a detriment to the candidates he supports.

Democrats facing anti-trans ads are responding in a variety of ways. Some, like Michigan's Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, have forcefully defended their transgender constituents. Others, like Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur, have released anti-trans advertisements of their own, boasting of voting "to keep transgender ideology out of our schools." The growing recognition that anti-trans ads are losing their effectiveness, now coming from the organization that pioneered them, should give every one of those Democrats pause about whether the ads are worth responding to at all. Republicans have spent seven years and hundreds of millions of dollars on this strategy, and their own strategist just told them it may not be enough. The Democrats rushing to concede the argument are conceding to a side that has stopped believing it can win on it.