Though much of the reporting on the Little v. Hecox court case is about transgender sports participation, the SCOTUS ruling could impact all rights of transgender people.
The supreme court is almost certain to rule against trans people in this ruling. 6-3 ruling almost guaranteed, with an outside chance of a 7-2 if they can peel off one of the liberals, which is possible but not likely.
The conservatives on the court have already made up their minds on this before arguments even start. So this seems a useless going-through-the-motions sort of thing. The only hope that can come out of this is that blue states will continue to be able to maintain stronger protections than the country as a whole - the constitution allows individual states, if they want, to enact a higher standard of civil liberties than that maintained by the gov’t as a whole.
Given how hostile this supreme court has been towards trans people thus far, I have zero faith that these cases end up ruling in our favor. Although I would very much love to be proved wrong.
I have to add, if the biological basis of being transgender and the time history dependent nature of testosterone's evident athletic advantage do not even come up, we are definitely cooked. At some point we have to ignore all the soft science mumbo jumbo and lean on the data -- until we do that, we will always lose to the majority who are more comfortable thinking we are some kind of ivory tower nonsense.
I think the best we can hope for in this case is a narrowly written loss.
I only hope there is nothing in dicta or anything binding in the decision which tends to preclude transgender people from being legally recognized to exist -- as opposed to being actually cisgender people with a sexual fetish, a mental illness, or who are demonically possessed . . .
. . . which is how I believe the social conservatives and "gender critical" ideologues actually view us.
This ruling could open the door. That is the stated intent of Project 2025 with regard to trans people. We cannot allow that. Our lives and legimacy cannot be legislated or adjudicated.
I wish I could be there tomorrow to help support everyone. I also hope that the rally outside the Supreme Court tomorrow is very large and loud. I am hopeful for a positive result from the Supreme Court ??
We need to flood local publications with op/eds (local pubs more likely to publish because they are else inundated) about what attacks on trans people portend for all people. I have a template on my substack for local sports issues-- feel free to adapt!
I hope chase strangio isn’t arguing this case. I was quite disappointed at his defense during skrmetti.
That said it doesn’t matter. They’ve already made up their mind. Anyone bringing cases to the federalist idealogically captured court I believe wants to restrict trans rights.
I agree with you 100%. There is no hope for a positive outcome in this case, and quite honestly it would be much better if it were never coming before the court. Efforts should be invested in blue states, from this point forward, for their protective state laws are all that we really have going forward. There will be no help or protection from SCOTUS or the federal government.
"I was quite disappointed at his defense during skrmetti."
I am still gobsmacked by his inability to affirm that GAC tends to prevent suicide in transgender youth. It's just an own goal of staggering existential proportions.
So, how do we hold on to hope after this ruling? Not sure where I even go without a recognition of my humanity.
After Skrmetti, with this SCOTUS, I hold little hope. Coney Barrett was practically begging for a case such as this.
The supreme court is almost certain to rule against trans people in this ruling. 6-3 ruling almost guaranteed, with an outside chance of a 7-2 if they can peel off one of the liberals, which is possible but not likely.
The conservatives on the court have already made up their minds on this before arguments even start. So this seems a useless going-through-the-motions sort of thing. The only hope that can come out of this is that blue states will continue to be able to maintain stronger protections than the country as a whole - the constitution allows individual states, if they want, to enact a higher standard of civil liberties than that maintained by the gov’t as a whole.
Given how hostile this supreme court has been towards trans people thus far, I have zero faith that these cases end up ruling in our favor. Although I would very much love to be proved wrong.
I have to add, if the biological basis of being transgender and the time history dependent nature of testosterone's evident athletic advantage do not even come up, we are definitely cooked. At some point we have to ignore all the soft science mumbo jumbo and lean on the data -- until we do that, we will always lose to the majority who are more comfortable thinking we are some kind of ivory tower nonsense.
I think the best we can hope for in this case is a narrowly written loss.
I only hope there is nothing in dicta or anything binding in the decision which tends to preclude transgender people from being legally recognized to exist -- as opposed to being actually cisgender people with a sexual fetish, a mental illness, or who are demonically possessed . . .
. . . which is how I believe the social conservatives and "gender critical" ideologues actually view us.
This ruling could open the door. That is the stated intent of Project 2025 with regard to trans people. We cannot allow that. Our lives and legimacy cannot be legislated or adjudicated.
I wish I could be there tomorrow to help support everyone. I also hope that the rally outside the Supreme Court tomorrow is very large and loud. I am hopeful for a positive result from the Supreme Court ??
I'm sick of having to hold my breath every time SCOTUS gets one of these cases.
I so appreciate your coverage of these issues. Thank you!
We are watching.
Hoping for the best but expecting to see the worst from this SCOTUS
We need to flood local publications with op/eds (local pubs more likely to publish because they are else inundated) about what attacks on trans people portend for all people. I have a template on my substack for local sports issues-- feel free to adapt!
I hope chase strangio isn’t arguing this case. I was quite disappointed at his defense during skrmetti.
That said it doesn’t matter. They’ve already made up their mind. Anyone bringing cases to the federalist idealogically captured court I believe wants to restrict trans rights.
I agree with you 100%. There is no hope for a positive outcome in this case, and quite honestly it would be much better if it were never coming before the court. Efforts should be invested in blue states, from this point forward, for their protective state laws are all that we really have going forward. There will be no help or protection from SCOTUS or the federal government.
"I was quite disappointed at his defense during skrmetti."
I am still gobsmacked by his inability to affirm that GAC tends to prevent suicide in transgender youth. It's just an own goal of staggering existential proportions.
My friend who works for the ACLU managing their social media will be there!