National Anti-Trans Bans Loom: Will Democrats Surrender Trans Rights?

Republicans have introduced a new amendment banning any federal funds from gender affirming care in several must-pass bills, with very little public pushback thus far.

This week, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene put forth a string of amendments to the must-pass Food and Drug Administration appropriations bill, advocating for a sweeping ban on federal funding for gender-affirming care and the hospitals that provide it. The primary Health and Human Services appropriations bill has moved forward, incorporating a clause aimed at prohibiting all federal funds for gender-affirming care. Similarly, the defense appropriations bill that fuels the US military has already secured full house approval, complete with a blanket ban on all funding for such care. This could wreak havoc on the lives of trans service members, or those with trans family members, should it ultimately be enacted into law.

Further funding bills for children's hospitals, veterans' affairs, and other key areas are following suit, each laden with comparable amendments. Despite the mounting potential fallout, this pivotal issue seems to be largely overlooked by major media outlets, a misstep given the potential for this issue to gridlock substantial portions of the government.

The push is to make gender affirming care bans into the new “Hyde Amendment,” an amendment commonly added to funding bills that bans federal spending on abortion. These amendments would do similarly, banning all federal spending on gender affirming care. These amendments could target everything from Affordable Care Act insurance plans, which fall under the regulation of Health and Human Services, to transgender people in the military, who must get their care through the military. The military would then be banned from providing such care - a defacto trans ban for servicemembers. Collectively, these amendments would seek to enact national anti-trans bans that would reach even people in deep blue states who have fled anti-trans policies in red states.

You can see a few examples of these provisions here:

HHS Appropriations Bill ban on gender affirming care funding.

FDA appropriations anti-trans amendment.

National Defense Authorization Act trans ban.

Meanwhile, Republicans are starting to construct their casus belli to justify threatening to shut down the government over gender affirming care. Just weeks prior, the party staged a well-publicized hearing on this care in the context of a bill that would eradicate funding for all teaching hospitals if they offered such services to trans youth. During this hearing, Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw inaccurately portrayed gender-affirming care as lacking "high-quality evidence," a talking point that was recently refuted in a landmark federal court decision in Arkansas that overturned a trans care ban there.

On Thursday, an even more publicized hearing is slated to take place. The House Judiciary subcommittee on Constitution and Limited Government will hold a hearing on gender affirming care. In this hearing, noted anti-trans activist Chloe Cole and Family Research Council’s Jennifer Bauwens will testify - the hearing is entitled, “The Dangers and Due Process Violations of ‘Gender-Affirming Care’ for Children.” Interestingly enough, due process violations are exactly what has overturned laws banning gender affirming care as unconstitutional.

Although these bills are likely to receive stiff pushback from Democrats, they are must-pass, leaving many activists wondering if gender affirming care will be a red line for Republicans that they will be willing to shut down the government over. Biden does not have the power of line-item veto, and Republicans increasingly are indicating a brinksmanship position on this front. Although coverage has been quiet on this front, there is increasing indications that Republicans do indeed intend to draw a red line on this issue - nearly all Republicans voted for the military ban, for instance. When asked specifically about this, Republican Dan Creneshaw stated, “This is the hill we’re going to die on.”

Meanwhile, there is real danger of Democrats bargaining away transgender rights if they do not receive significant pushback. Republicans already have managed to use this process to continue to insert the Hyde amendment which bans abortion funding in appropriations bills - something Democrats then voted for.

In interviewing Democratic officials, Politico determined “some in the [Democratic] party fear they may be forced to compromise to keep the government.”

As seen in the Politico report, many other Republican red-meat items have been inserted into these bills ranging from further bans on abortion funding to DEI bans. Responding to the idea that they will pass these provisions, Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz indicated, “If Republicans think they’re going to win the presidency and keep the majority in the House on culture wars, particularly on the backs of women and their reproductive rights, they’re living on another planet.”

If Politico is correct in their speculation over potential compromise, and that compromise does not occur over abortion rights, advocates for LGBTQ+ rights should be especially alarmed.

Should they compromise on this issue, it is not likely to be popular with voters. A recent Data For Progress poll published today indicates huge majorities of American voters oppose such riders for things like military funding, including a double-digit Republican majority:

Data For Progress poll

Looking ahead, these negotiations will likely unfold behind closed doors, while Republicans publicly stake out their position on gender-affirming care in the media spotlight. Moderate Republicans and Democrats stand to become the focal points in this issue. If they don't receive a deluge of phone calls and anticipate electoral backlash for compromising on LGBTQ+ rights, they may opt to concede to such policy riders to prevent a government shutdown.

However, one truth is becoming increasingly evident - as we venture into 2024, the Republican Party is unabashedly cementing anti-transgender policies into the bedrock of their platform. The question remains: will Democrats refuse to concede to anti-trans ultimatums in Republican hostage taking of the US Government?