Latest Gallup Poll Shows Republicans Will Not Stop With Transgender People

Support for LGB people is dropping as well as trans people, and it seems entirely driven by Republican respondents.

Photo by Raphael Renter | @raphi_rawr on Unsplash

On Wednesday, Gallup released a striking new poll showing support for LGBTQ+ people declining for a second consecutive year. The drop is not limited to transgender people—similar declines have hit support for same-sex marriage and the moral acceptance of gay and lesbian relationships, which is now at its lowest point since 2016. When examined closely, the decline is driven almost entirely by Republicans, whose support for same-sex marriage has collapsed 18 points in five years and whose moral acceptance of gay and lesbian relationships has fallen back to where it was in 2010. The numbers come as the political crackdown that began with transgender people has broadened to target the wider LGBTQ+ community—with state legislatures now hearing bills to overturn same-sex marriage and a sitting Republican congressman declaring this week that "homosexuality has no place in America." The data makes one thing clear: there is no LGB without the T. As it has been for our entire history, our rights are deeply interconnected, and those who target one part of this community will not stop until they have come for all of it.

Gallup Poll

According to the poll, the percentage of Americans who believe same-sex marriages should be legally valid now sits at 65%, a significant drop from its peak of 71% in 2022. The percentage who believe gay or lesbian relationships are morally acceptable has fallen to 62%, the lowest Gallup has recorded since 2016—just one year after the Supreme Court's Obergefell decision legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. For transgender people, the picture is even bleaker: only 38% of Americans believe it is morally acceptable to change one's gender, down eight points in five years. These numbers represent a serious regression from what had seemed like an irreversible upswing in acceptance of LGBTQ+ people, and reflect an increasing hostility toward their existence that has accelerated sharply since 2022.

It is tempting to view this decline as emblematic of a broader societal backlash toward LGBTQ+ people, but a closer look at the data reveals something more specific. The numbers are driven almost entirely by a collapse in attitudes among Republicans, whose party has actively stoked hostility toward LGBTQ+ people among its base for the past five years. Democratic support for same-sex marriage remains at 87%, unchanged since 2022. Independent support has dipped only modestly. But among Republicans, the reversal is severe. A majority of Republicans—55%—said they favored same-sex marriage in 2021 and 2022. Today, that number sits at 37%, an 18-point collapse. In that same period, the share of Republicans who said gay and lesbian relationships were morally acceptable fell from 56% to 35%, a 21-point drop—meaning nearly two-thirds of the Republican Party now believes it is immoral to be gay. Only 5% of Republicans believe it is morally acceptable to change one's gender.

These changes did not happen organically. They are the product of a deliberate, well-funded, decades-long campaign by the religious far right to roll back LGBTQ+ acceptance in America. The Alliance Defending Freedom, a massive far-right and Christian Nationalist organization with $100+ million fundraising, has pursued what it calls a "generational wins" strategy that explicitly includes the elimination of marriage equality. The organization was was the legal force behind Chiles v. Salazar, the case that legalized conversion therapy nationwide. ADF has openly identified the elimination of marriage equality as part of its "generational wins" strategy. Meanwhile, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 blueprint for a second Trump term included sweeping rollbacks of LGBTQ+ protections across the federal government, many of which are actively being implemented.

As a result, Republican leaders are more willing than ever to embrace not only anti-transgender stances, but openly anti-LGB ones as well. Legislators in at least ten states have introduced resolutions calling on the Supreme Court to overturn Obergefell. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton spent years undermining marriage equality, openly suggesting that Texas would reintroduce sodomy laws if the Supreme Court overturned Lawrence v. Texas. A new conservative coalition backed by the Hobby Lobby fortune launched a campaign explicitly aimed at overturning marriage equality. And just this week, Republican Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee posted on social media: "Homosexuality has no place in America. Happy Nuclear Family Month." He deleted the post after backlash from even his own colleagues, but the sentiment he expressed is now the majority position of his party's voters.

The Trump administration has likewise expanded its targeting well beyond transgender people. After digitally erasing transgender people from the Stonewall National Monument, his administration went further and removed references to bisexual people as well, partially reversing course only after widespread backlash. In February, the administration physically removed the Pride flag from the monument entirely. It has moved to effectively dismantle PEPFAR, the landmark global HIV/AIDS program—a move that has cost countless people access to PrEP medication. It also eliminated the specialized LGBTQ+ youth option within the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline.

So while this administration's attacks on transgender people have been extraordinarily vile, it is critical to understand that the Republican Party was never going to stop with just transgender people. The forces behind this campaign—backed by billions in far-right Christian nationalist funding and decades of legal strategy—have intended from the beginning to go after marriage equality and LGB people as well. When Obergefell was decided, those on the other side did not pack their bags and go home—they outlined a plan to target the entire community, starting with transgender people. Now the Gallup numbers reveal that their hold on the Republican Party and its beliefs has crystalized into something dangerous for all LGBTQ+ people, and the community is and always will be in it together.