Here Are The Races To Watch Around The United States For LGBTQ+ People

Over 160 competitive and important races across the United States feature trans and queer issues prominently. Here are some of the biggest ones I will be watching on election night.

Ted Eytan - CC BY-SA 4.0

Election night is almost here, and if you’re anything like me, you’re anxiously energetic and have a million thoughts racing through your mind. I’ve channeled that energy into a project designed to make following election night more engaging for trans and queer people. This year, hundreds of competitive races across the United States spotlight LGBTQ+ issues. These contests will significantly shape the narrative we build around the election's outcomes. My tracker is available here, and without further ado, here are the most critical races and stories I'm following for LGBTQ+ communities on election night.

The Top Of The Ticket

Most people will be focused on the top-of-the-ticket races—the statewide Senate contests, gubernatorial elections, and, of course, the race for the next President of the United States. This year, around $100 million has been spent on anti-trans advertisements nationwide, with much of that targeting Senate candidates in key swing states. The issue has surfaced repeatedly this election cycle, with Republican candidates often using it to shift focus away from their stances on abortion.

Here are the top-of-ticket races, other than Harris v. Trump, I will be watching most closely and why they are worth watching on election night:

• Mark Robinson (R) vs. Josh Stein (D) - North Carolina Governor: This race carries significant weight, as gubernatorial vetoes and veto overrides were instrumental last year in anti-trans laws. With the possibility of the Republican supermajority slipping in the legislature, electing Josh Stein could serve as a check on harmful legislation toward transgender people. Mark Robinson, who has campaigned heavily on anti-trans issues, recently drew attention after calling himself a “black Nazi” on a porn website, where he also admitted to enjoying transgender porn.

• Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Joyce Craig (D) - New Hampshire Governor: This race holds substantial importance as New Hampshire’s state legislature is nearly evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans recently used their narrow majority and control of the governorship to advance several anti-trans laws. Ayotte has voiced support for forced outing policies, a stance she campaigned on during the Republican debates. In contrast, Craig has criticized these bills, calling them an attack on vulnerable trans youth in New Hampshire.

• Bernie Moreno (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D) - Ohio Senator: This is one of the Republican Senate Leadership Fund PAC’s largest anti-trans ad spend states. The organization has spent tens of millions of dollars targeting Sherrod Brown with ads saying he “would allow sex change surgery for young kids.” The race is an essential pick up for Democrats to maintain a senate majority.

• Mike Rogers (R) vs. Elissa Slotkin (D) - Michigan Senator: This race has featured heavy anti-trans advertising against Elissa Slotkin. The race is an essential pick up for Democrats to maintain a senate majority.

• Eric Hovde (R) vs. Tammy Baldwin (D) - Wisconsin Senator: This has also been a big Senate Leadership Fund state, with anti-trans attack ads saying that Tammy Baldwin supports “castration” for minors. The race is an essential pick up for Democrats to maintain a senate majority.

• Dave McCormick (R) vs. Bob Casey (D) - Pennsylvania Senator: This is yet another Senate Leadership Fund state. Anti-trans attack ads say Bob Casey will “force hospitals to perform sex change surgeries on kids.” The race is an essential pick up for Democrats to maintain a senate majority.

Other races where trans issues have been a major factor include IN-GOV, MO-GOV, AZ-SEN, FL-SEN, MT-SEN, NE-SEN, NV-SEN, and TX Sen.

The House Of Representatives

Anti-trans attack ads and heavy anti-trans platforms are not limited to the biggest statewide races. They also have been prevalent in nearly every contested race this year in House elections. I have identified 31 contested House of Representative elections that have featured anti-trans attack ads, campaigning on transgender issues, and anti-trans legislation sponsors.

Here are the races I will be watching most closely on election night:

• Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Christina Bohannan (D) - IA-01: This closely watched congressional race in Iowa features a Republican candidate who has made anti-transgender advocacy a central focus of her campaign. In September, she appeared alongside Riley Gaines to support trans sports bans. Given that this is an R+3 district in the purple-to-red state of Iowa, a Republican loss on transgender issues here could spell trouble for the party in swing districts nationwide.

• Mike Garcia (R) vs. George Whitesides (D) - CA-27: This race is critical for Democratic efforts to maintain control of the House of Representatives, as Democrats have sought to secure several House districts in California in recent years. In this contest, the NRCC is running ads claiming that Whitesides "supports pedophiles" because he donated to Equality California, a prominent LGBTQ+ civil rights organization in the state. A Republican loss here would indicate that anti-LGBTQ+ advertising may not be effective in slowing Democratic gains in California.

• Marc Molinaro (R) vs. Josh Riley (D) - NY-19: Several New York races are competitive this year and could offer significant Democratic pick-ups. In this district, transgender issues have been a major point of contention. The Republican candidate, Molinaro, co-sponsored a national bill mandating the forced outing of transgender youth. During a debate with Josh Riley, he declined to support an equal rights amendment, citing concerns that it would require women to compete against “biological men” in girls' sports. A Molinaro loss here could signal vulnerability for other New York seats where LGBTQ+ issues have also been prominent.

• Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D) - PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry, a Republican who has represented Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District since 2013, is facing a highly competitive race this year. This year, the incumbent is facing a very close election fight, with the Cook Report rating this a toss up. In response, Republican groups have launched ads against Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson, accusing her of "supporting sex change operations for prisoners, illegal aliens, and minor children." If this strategy proves ineffective in Pennsylvania's swing district, it may suggest similar tactics could fail in other competitive states.

• John James (R) vs. Carl Marlinga (D) - MI-10: This race is a rematch of 2022, with the same two candidates competing for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District. Last time, they were separated by just 2,000 votes. Now, John James has found a new approach for his campaign: anti-trans ads and rhetoric. During his RNC speech, James delivered a raucous statement: “Our daughters were sold on hope, now they are being forced into the changing rooms of biological males.” Ads from the RNC targeting his opponent are some of the most extreme, accusing Marlina of wanting schools to “medicate students so they can change gender and hide it from their parents.”

• Sarah McBride (D) vs. John Whalen III (R) - DE-AL: In Delaware's at-large congressional district, Democratic candidate Sarah McBride is poised to make history as the first openly transgender person elected to Congress. While the race against Republican John Whalen III isn't anticipated to be highly competitive, McBride's expected victory marks a significant milestone for transgender representation at the federal level. Her election would ensure that transgender individuals have a voice among the nation's highest officeholders.

Other races of note include AK-00, AZ-01, AZ-02, CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, CA-47, CA-49, FL-13, FL-18, FL-27, ME-02, MI-07, MI-08, MT-01, NE-02, NM-02, NY-01, NY-04, NY-17, OR-05, TX-15, VA-02, WA-03, WI-03, all of which feature transgender issues prominently.

State Legislatures

In recent years, state legislatures have been the primary battlegrounds for debates over transgender rights. These legislative bodies have introduced over 1,000 bills targeting transgender individuals in the past two years, with many becoming law. The rhetoric and policies developed at the state level have now permeated national discourse, influencing television commercials and political campaigns across the country. As a result, legislators who supported anti-trans measures, including those considered "moderate Republicans," are now facing electoral scrutiny. This is particularly significant for those who, despite appeals from parents and allies of transgender youth, cast votes in favor of restrictive legislation.

Here are the legislative races I’ll be watching most closely:

Michigan’s “Citizens For Traditional Values” Candidates In Swing Districts (MI-28, 29, 31, 38, 42, 58, 62, 76, 83, 86, 103): This slate of candidates will be running in swing districts throughout Michigan. These candidates are endorsed by the far-right “Citizens For Traditional Values,” which runs on a platform that includes “traditional marriage” and was primarily formed to oppose transgender people in the state. Many candidates listed above are running anti-trans ads and voted against a conversion therapy ban last year.

North Carolina’s Anti-Trans Swing District Supermajority (NC-5, NC-9, NC-20, NC-24, NC-37, NC-48, NC-62, NC-74, 103, 105): Many of these candidates hold critical seats in North Carolina’s supermajority, which has been used to push anti-trans bills into effect by overriding the Democratic governor’s vetoes. If Josh Stein wins the governorship, breaking the supermajority would be essential to protecting transgender youth in the state from further targeting. These races include candidates like Tricia Cotham, a turncoat Democrat who switched parties and forced through anti-trans legislation despite previously campaigning in support of LGBTQ+ rights, as well as original proponents of the infamous 2016 North Carolina bathroom ban, such as Ted Davis and John Blust.

Nebraska’s Senate (NE-31, NE-45, and NE-49): In Nebraska last year, Democrats filibustered a gender-affirming care ban for over 80 days. Ultimately, Republicans who otherwise consider themselves to be "moderate" voted in favor of the bill, ending the filibuster. Most notable among them is Kathleen Kauth, the author of the bill, who represents Nebraska's 31st District. Kauth won her previous election by 6 percentage points, making this a critical race to watch. In the 45th District, Rita Sanders supported the bill despite facing a tight race in her previous election. Conversely, Jen Day is facing Bob Anderson, who ran on an anti-trans platform.

Wisconsin’s Anti-Trans House Ads (WI-30, WI-53, WI-61, WI-89, WI-94): In Wisconsin, Republican candidates are deploying anti-transgender advertisements in state legislative races, with messages claiming opponents will "force your daughter to get dressed in front of a strange man" or "force girls into locker rooms with boys." These highly competitive contests will reveal whether such strategies resonate with voters or fail to gain traction.

Other legislatures with important competitive races that have featured transgender-related action include Alaska (AK-06, 23, 34, P-SEN, N-SEN), Arizona (AZ-17), Florida (FL-61, 65), Georgia (GA-48, GA-147, GA-56-SEN, GA-48-SEN), Indiana (IN-25, IN-36, IN-24-SEN, IN-35-SEN), Iowa (IA-40, IA-95, IA-99, IA-14-SEN, IA-20-SEN), Nevada (NV-09, NV-06-SEN), Ohio (OH-64, OH-44), South Carolina (SC-3, SC-24), Texas (TX-64, TX-94), Utah (UT-10).

Boards Of Education/School Boards

Across the United States, numerous races have a direct and enormous impact on LGBTQ+ people. Chief among these are school board races, where boards set policies that shape students' experiences. Even in affirming states, school boards can make life difficult for LGBTQ+ students—or, in states with anti-trans and anti-queer legislation, they can push back against restrictive policies. Here are the most significant school board races in the country affecting transgender people:

Wake County School Board, North Carolina + Michele Morrow (Superintendent): Wake County Public Schools is the largest school district in North Carolina, and Moms For Liberty aligned candidates have eyed it for a takeover. They’re running Wing Ng (D3), Ted Hills (D5), Josh Points (D6), and Elizabeth McDuffie (D8) to try to make that happen. Meanwhile, Michele Morrow is running on an anti-trans platform for North Carolina’s Superintendent of schools, calling LGBTQ+ people pedophiles.

Maricopa County School Superintendent Kelli Boggs (R) vs. Laura Metcalfe (D), Arizona: Maricopa County Schools, serving 750,000 students, is witnessing a contentious race for school superintendent. Republican candidate Shelli Boggs has highlighted endorsements from Riley Gaines and the Arizona Women of Action PAC. These endorsements suggest support for policies such as book bans and forced outing policies.

Washington Board of Education David Olson (Republican-aligned) vs. Chris Reykdal (Democrat-aligned): The race for Washington State Superintendent of Public Instruction is particularly significant this year, following the passage of a limited "parental rights" bill that some Democrats strategically supported. Critics of incumbent Chris Reykdal have targeted his advocacy for LGBTQ+ students. In contrast, challenger David Olson has advocated for increased local control over school boards, which could potentially use the new law to bypass protections for LGBTQ+ students.’

Other major school board races to watch with anti-trans candidates include those in Arizona (Chandler, Mesa, and Tucson), California (Chino Valley), Florida (Brevard, Hernando, Lee, Miami-Dade, Pinellas, Volusia, Clay), Maine (Gardiner-area schools), Maryland (MCPS, FCPS, HCPS), Michigan (Rochester BOE, L’anse Creuse Public Schools), Nevada (Clark County, Districts B and E), Texas (Conroe ISD), Utah (Utah State Board of Education D9).

Other Races

A handful of other races also feature LGBTQ+ issues prominently. These include State Supreme Court elections and ballot initiatives which could have huge impact on transgender and queer people in their respective states. Here are the additional races I am watching:

Michigan State Supreme Court Races - Kyra Harris Bolden (Democrat Aligned) vs. Patrick W. O’Grady (Republican aligned) and Kimberly Thomas (Democrat Aligned) vs. Andrew Fink (Republican Aligned): The ACLU of Michigan states that this race is one of the most important for LGBTQ+ residents. The Michigan State Supreme Court has issued important decisions protecting LGBTQ+ people, according to the ACLU. The current court features a 4-3 Democratic majority. If Democrats win both of these seats, they will have a 5-2 majority. If they fail to win either, Republicans could take control.

Issue 1 (New York) and Issue 3 (Missouri): Republicans have been running against abortion rights amendments and issues in Missouri and New York this year, stating that passing them will allow “sex changes for children” and will “endanger the safety of girls in locker rooms.” This strategy has failed in other states, such as Ohio, where similar tactics were used in 2023.

For a full list of races where transgender issues have been heavily featured, see the full spreadsheet here.