Final Pre-Election 2024 Anti-Trans Risk Assessment Map

The risk has increased nationwide for transgender youth and adults as a result of the 2024 election.

Short summary of updates: The elections have tightened across the United States, and anti-trans ads have become a major part of the 2024 campaign cycle. As such, the risk has substantially raised for nationwide laws targeting transgender people in the coming years for both youth and adults. For states, the state of Texas has been upgraded to Do Not Travel, only the second state to receive such a recommendation. This comes as Odessa, Texas becomes the first city in the nation to pass a $10,000 bounty on transgender people inside of bathrooms.

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 5 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, arrests for using the bathroom, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

In previous iterations of the map, the focus was entirely on the risk to transgender youth. When the map was first developed, bills targeting transgender youth were far more common. Unfortunately over the last two years, the transgender youth map has lost all granularity, largely reducing to just two colors: red and blue, a set of states criminalizing trans youth and a set of states protecting them. You can still find this map at the end of the document, and it will be continually updated. The primary map of focus, though, will be the transgender adult map, as bills targeting trans adults have become far more common.

Methodology

The methodology used is primarily qualitative, with a scoring-rubric element for the worst bills. Part of the methodology is my own expert assessment of laws, of which I am well equipped to do. I have read all 550 bills that target trans people in America in 2023 and 586 so far in 2024. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation in this newsletter.

In terms of actual laws, I keep a rubric of the various types of laws that target transgender people. For transgender youth, the most concerning laws are those that prohibit gender-affirming care and mandate detransition. Additionally, bathroom bans, laws that rigidly define sex as binary, and restrictions on social transition are other key factors that negatively impact a state's ranking. For transgender adults, the primary legislative concerns include adult gender affirming care bans, bathroom bans, prohibitions on drag specifically aimed at trans people and pride events, restrictions on changing birth certificates and drivers licenses, and laws that end legal recognition for trans people entirely. These factors play a significant role in how I assess and rank a state's legislative risk.

The Adult Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Moves in this update: Texas (Worst Laws → Do Not Travel), National Risk (Moderate Risk → High risk)

• Summary of updates: There are two major updates for the adult map this month. The first comes in Texas. Attorney General Ken Paxton began barring transgender adults from updating their drivers licenses, even with court orders, a major escalation in attacks against transgender people in the state, and even targeted name changes. This was not enough to justify a Do Not Travel warning initially. However, this week, Odessa, TX, a city of over 100,000 people, became the first to pass a transgender bathroom bounty law. The ordinance puts $10,000 bounties on trans people in bathrooms, and I expect other locales in the state to follow. This demanded the highest risk for Texas, not just for transgender people living there, but for those traveling through. Secondarily, national risk level has increased to high in response to a potential Trump presidency as well as increased likelihood of transgender people being a sticking point in national budget negotiations.

Nationwide Risk: High. Attacks on transgender people are a major part of the 2024 campaign, with Trump spending more ads targeting trans people than on any other issue. Should Trump win, there are over a dozen policies that he has called for, many of which target transgender adults. Even in the event that Trump loses, Senate and House negotiations on budget bills are likely to feature fights over transgender healthcare.

Here are the categories:

• Do Not Travel (FL, TX): Two states have earned “Do Not Travel” advisories: Florida and Texas. Florida has a law that allows for the arrest of transgender people for using bathrooms according to their gender identity and another policy targets transgender people’s drivers licenses. Florida has also put into effect a policy that says trans people “misrepresenting” their gender on their drivers license could be guilty of fraud. Local LGBTQ+ orgs as well as HRC have issued travel advisories for the state. This analysis likewise concurs with such a rating. In Texas, the state is not only ignoring court ordered drivers license changes for trans adults, but it is also creating a database of people attempting to make such changes. Meanwhile, Odessa, TX has passed a bounty ordinence that puts $10,000 bounties on transgender people in bathrooms.

• The Worst States (AL, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, OK, ND, TN, UT): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways. Kansas and Utah have bathroom bans for transgender adults. Alabama has also passed a Don’t Say Gay bill that includes a bathroom ban on college campuses. Many states, including Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. Other states, such as Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, prohibit any changes to birth certificates, forcing trans people to out themselves when showing their documents. In Kansas, this law could even force individuals who have updated their driver's licenses and birth certificates to see their gender markers reverted. These states also could start targeting adult gender affirming care - Florida has already done so, banning 80% of such care. Idaho has an extreme ban on state funds for gender affirming care.

• High-Risk States (AR, IA, IN, MO, NE, NH, OH, SC, WV): All of these states have passed some anti-trans adult laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth and have seen new laws proposed this cycle going even further. Nebraska’s governor has issued an executive order ending legal recognition of trans people. Additionally, some of these states, including Arkansas, have laws that permit the refusal of medical care to LGBTQ+ individuals on religious grounds. Although each of these states has laws targeting transgender adults, none have done so to the extent of the worst states.

• Moderate-Risk States (AK, GA, KY, NC, SD, WY): These states have either passed one or two laws aimed at transgender adults or have enacted multiple laws targeting transgender youth, or are advancing negative laws quickly. For states focusing on trans youth, history shows they are more likely to introduce anti-trans legislation for adults in subsequent years. All of these states are under Republican control, either through supermajorities in the legislature or Republican governorships. Many have enacted "Don't Say Gay" provisions, which frequently result in the banning of transgender teachers - in Georgia, for instance, a teacher was fired for merely reading a book with a character that could vaguely be interpreted as transgender. Additionally, many have passed religious refusal rights bills. However, most of these states have either not yet ventured into anti-trans adult legislation or have only passed milder forms of such laws.

• Low-Risk States (AZ, DE, MI, NV, PA, VA, WI): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. For example, Arizona and Virginia have enacted anti-trans policies affecting youth but, due to state-specific factors, appear unlikely to extend such policies to adults. Conversely, Michigan, and Nevada have enacted fairly robust non-discrimination policies but fall short in ensuring healthcare equity and providing protections for incarcerated transgender individuals. While these states generally offer a safer environment for transgender adults, they stop short of going the extra mile to make their jurisdictions unequivocally safe places to reside.

• Most Protective States (CA, CO, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. States like Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, and Washington have enacted comprehensive health insurance laws that cover facial hair removal and an expanded range of medical procedures. Each of these states offers refugee protections for individuals fleeing more repressive states with anti-trans laws. Care is not only supported but also enjoys legal reinforcement from the state, ensuring accessibility as long as such treatments remain lawful at the national level. These states are the most likely to counteract federal anti-trans regulations if faced with a Republican presidency.

The Youth Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Very few states now occupy the middle ground in the realm of anti-trans legislation for transgender youth. Those marked in dark red have enacted bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, with many even mandating medical detransition for these young people. Conversely, states shown in dark blue have implemented refugee protection laws for trans youth seeking to escape the harsh legal environments of more restrictive states.

Moves in this update: National Risk (Moderate Risk → High Risk), Texas (Worst Laws → Do Not Travel).

• Summary of updates: Two major changes have occurred this month for the youth risk assessment map. The first has to do with the state of Texas, which has already been an incredibly difficult state for transgender youth due to extreme actions by Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has targeted transgender youth for traveling across state lines to get care. Texas now holds a “Do Not Travel” position on the map after Odessa, TX passed a bathroom bounty ordinance with $10,000 bounties on trans people in bathrooms. I expect other cities in the state to follow. As for the nationwide risk, it has been updated to High due to a potential Trump presidency.

Nationwide Risk: High. The 2024 election cycle and a tightening presidential race has increased the threat level for transgender youth. Should Trump win, extreme restrictions nationwide are likely. If Trump loses, restrictions could still go into place via congressional budget fights.