Erin's Anti-Trans Risk Map: Early Legislative Session Edition

With 16 days in the legislative session, there are some states whose risk levels must be updated to account for trends in legislatures across the United States. This map updates that risk.

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, arrests for using the bathroom, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

In previous iterations of the map, the focus was entirely on the risk to transgender youth. When the map was first developed, bills targeting transgender adults were far more common. Unfortunately over the last year, the transgender youth map has lost all granularity, largely reducing to just two colors: red and blue, a set of states criminalizing trans youth and a set of states protecting them. You can still find this map at the end of the document, and it will be continually updated. The primary map of focus, though, will be the transgender adult map, as bills targeting trans adults have become far more common.

Methodology

The methodology used is primarily qualitative, with a scoring-rubric element for the worst bills. Part of the methodology is my own expert assessment of laws, of which I am well equipped to do. I have read all 550 bills that target trans people in America in 2023. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation in this newsletter.

In terms of actual laws, I keep a rubric of the various types of laws that target transgender people. For transgender youth, the most concerning laws are those that prohibit gender-affirming care and mandate detransition. Additionally, bathroom bans, laws that rigidly define sex as binary, and restrictions on social transition are other key factors that negatively impact a state's ranking. For transgender adults, the primary legislative concerns include adult gender affirming care bans, bathroom bans, prohibitions on drag specifically aimed at trans people and pride events, restrictions on changing birth certificates, and laws that define sex in a way that effectively erases trans individuals from legal codes. These factors play a significant role in how I assess and rank a state's legislative risk.

The Adult Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

This updated map delineates the legislative risks concerning laws aimed at transgender adults in the United States. States like Florida have eliminated 80% of all trans adult care, and adults can be thrown in jail for using the bathroom of their gender identity. Multiple states have passed laws ending all legal recognition for trans people. As such, starting this year, adult risk levels for trans people will be tracked on its own map.

Moves in this update: Utah (Medium Risk → High Risk), Indiana (Medium Risk → High Risk), New Hampshire (Low Risk → Medium Risk)

• Summary of updates: Events in the first 15 days of the legislative cycle have justified the raising of risk for transgender adults in three states: New Hampshire, Utah, and Indiana. Broadly, there are more bills being proposed in this legislative cycle targeting transgender adults nationwide. These bills include the total end of all legal recognition and adult bathroom bans. Utah and Indiana are among the states with proposed harsh legislation targeting transgender adults. As for New Hampshire, it has already passed two anti-trans bills out of the state house, with even a few Democrats voting in favor of them. As such, it no longer being considered a “low risk” state for transgender adults. Moves out of the “low” category are exceedingly rare and indicate a potential shift in the landscape that warrants close observation.

Nationwide Risk: Moderate. Increasing bills targeting trans adult healthcare and campaigning by Republican presidential candidates means that there could be national anti-trans laws should Republicans gain all 3 branches of government.

Here are the categories:

• Do Not Travel (FL): The only state earning a “Do Not Travel” advisory is Florida. Florida has a law that allows for the arrest of transgender people for using bathrooms according to their gender identity. Local LGBTQ+ orgs as well as HRC have issued travel advisories for the state. This analysis likewise concurs with such a rating.

• The Worst States (KS, MT, ND, OK, TN): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways. Kansas has a bathroom ban for transgender adults (albeit with few enforcement mechanisms), while Tennessee briefly enacted a law requiring signage to warn of the presence of transgender individuals in restrooms. Many, including Florida, Kansas, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. Other states, such as Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, prohibit any changes to birth certificates, forcing trans people to out themselves when showing their documents. In Kansas, this law could even force individuals who have updated their driver's licenses and birth certificates to see their gender markers reverted. These states also could start targeting adult gender affirming care - Florida has already done so, banning 80% of such care.

• High-Risk States (AL, AR, IN, LA, MO, MS, NE, OH, SC, TX, UT, WV): All of these states have passed some anti-trans adult laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth and have seen new laws proposed this cycle going even further. Nebraska’s governor has issued an executive order defining sex as binary. Additionally, some of these states, including Alabama and Arkansas, have laws that permit the refusal of medical care to LGBTQ+ individuals on religious grounds. Although each of these states has laws targeting transgender adults, none have done so to the extent of the worst states. New to this category is Indiana and Utah - both are considering either trans adult bathroom bans or bills that would end all legal recognition for transgender people.

• Moderate-Risk States (AK, GA, IA, ID, KY, NC, NH, SD, WY): These states have either passed one or two laws aimed at transgender adults or have enacted multiple laws targeting transgender youth. For states focusing on trans youth, history shows they are more likely to introduce anti-trans legislation for adults in subsequent years. All of these states are under Republican control, either through supermajorities in the legislature or Republican governorships. Many have enacted "Don't Say Gay" provisions, which frequently result in the banning of transgender teachers - in Georgia, for instance, a teacher was fired for merely reading a book with a character that could vaguely be interpreted as transgender. Additionally, many have passed religious refusal rights bills. However, most of these states have either not yet ventured into anti-trans adult legislation or have only passed milder forms of such laws. New to this category is New Hampshire, which has passed two anti-trans bills out of the state house already and which has seen many more proposed.

• Low-Risk States (AZ, DE, ME, MI, NV, PA, RI, VA, WI): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. For example, Arizona and Virginia have enacted anti-trans policies affecting youth but, due to state-specific factors, appear unlikely to extend such policies to adults. Conversely, Michigan, Maine, and Nevada have enacted fairly robust non-discrimination policies but fall short in ensuring healthcare equity and providing protections for incarcerated transgender individuals. While these states generally offer a safer environment for transgender adults, they stop short of going the extra mile to make their jurisdictions unequivocally safe places to reside.

• Most Protective States (CA, CO, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, VT, WA): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. States like Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, and Washington have enacted comprehensive health insurance laws that cover facial hair removal and an expanded range of medical procedures. Each of these states offers refugee protections for individuals fleeing more repressive states with anti-trans laws. Care is not only supported but also enjoys legal reinforcement from the state, ensuring accessibility as long as such treatments remain lawful at the national level. These states are the most likely to counteract federal anti-trans regulations if faced with a Republican presidency.

The Youth Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Very few states now occupy the middle ground in the realm of anti-trans legislation for transgender youth. Those marked in dark red have enacted bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, with many even mandating medical detransition for these young people. Conversely, states shown in dark blue have implemented refugee protection laws for trans youth seeking to escape the harsh legal environments of more restrictive states. Alaska and Wyoming remain outliers, with real uncertainty about their legislative directions. Alaska recently approved a sports ban for transgender individuals through its state board of education, but otherwise, neither state has shown significant inclination to partake in the current anti-trans legislative wave. Virginia, Ohio, West Virginia, and South Carolina, while not having passed total gender-affirming care bans, all have other laws and policies that heavily target transgender youth and remain at high risk; West Virginia, Ohio, and South Carolina may move up in risk very shortly as many of these bills are moving through their state legislatures.

Moves in this update: New Hampshire (Low Risk → High Risk)

• Summary of updates: One of the biggest shifts in the history of the map occurred in New Hampshire, whose state house passed a ban on gender affirming surgery for trans youth as well as a general sports and bathroom discrimination bill. Almost all Republicans and even a handful of Democrats in the state voted for this bill, signaling that the state is much higher risk than previously anticipated. In other states such as South Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio, youth care bans are rocketing through the local state legislatures and all could move up in risk level shortly.

Nationwide Risk: Moderate. Increasing bills targeting trans healthcare and campaigning by Republican presidential candidates means that there could be national anti-trans laws should Republicans gain all 3 branches of government.