Conservative Canadian Premier Blaine Higgs Loses Election After Calling Anti-Trans Stances "A Political Winner"

The loss comes as several U.S.-based politicians grapple with anti-trans campaigns in the lead-up to the 2024 elections.

Blaine Higgs - La Chambre - Public Domain

While elections have certainly been heating up in the United States over transgender issues, candidates desiring an early look into how such issues might fare may look no further than Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs of New Brunswick. The candidate, who has served as premier of New Brunswick for the last six years, saw his party lose in a crushing defeat to the Liberals. The premier lost his own race as well. The candidate made waves as the first premier to implement anti-trans policies in schools, stating at the time that he would not back down, reportedly calling the idea “an election winner”

Blaine Higgs, in an interview with the Canadian Press, defended his record as the first Canadian premier to unilaterally implement anti-trans policies in schools, stating that he “would not change anything” and calling the idea an election winner. His revisions to what is collectively known as Policy 713 required that transgender youth under the age of 16 be forcibly outed to their parents. The policy also mandated that teachers misgender and deadname trans students if they did not have parental consent or were not out to their parents.

At the time, Helen Kennedy, executive director of the LGBTQ+ organization Egale Canada, said, "I think other provinces are obviously watching very closely to see what the potential fallout will be."

On Tuesday, it became clear that the Progressive Conservative party, the right-leaning party in the province, faced a decisive defeat. In 2020, the party won 27 seats compared to the Liberals' 17, but this year, the Liberals secured 31 seats to the PCs' 16. Not only did Blaine Higgs' party lose power, but the premier also lost his own “safe” seat in Quispamsis, the most conservative district in 2020.

Higgs will be replaced as premier by Susan Holt, who will become the first woman to lead New Brunswick. Holt has indicated she will reverse Higgs' anti-trans forced outing policies in schools. Earlier this year, she participated in protests supporting transgender students, posting on her Twitter account, "Great to join the crowd today at the rally in support of trans youth. I was honoured to share our support for the protection of trans people in our province & country."

Advocates for transgender people celebrated in New Brunswick and across Canada following Higg’s loss. Fae Johnstone, Canadian organizer and spokesperson for Queer Momentum, blamed his loss on his anti-trans policies, stating, “That single decision marked the beginning of the end. It sparked a revolt in his own caucus divided his party and mobilized parents, queer people, teachers and workers across the province against him.”

Higgs’ loss could resonate in the United States as well, where Republican candidates are spending nearly $100 million on anti-transgender ads across the country. Similarly to Higgs, influential strategists such as Terry Schilling of the American Principles Project have also called such ads “a political winner,” despite a long history of Republican election losses on the issue, including Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, legislative races in Pennsylvania and Virginia, Georgia’s Herschel Walker vs. Raphael Warnock election, Andy Beshear’s reelection in Kentucky, and the 2023 losses of 70% of Moms for Liberty and Project 1776 school board candidates across the U.S.

While some Democrats have expressed nervousness over transgender issues, the top of the ticket does not appear to be backing down. In a Fox News interview last week, Kamala Harris emphasized that the law requires medically necessary care for prison inmates and criticized divisive ads from the Trump campaign as an attempt to "create a sense of fear" by focusing on an issue that is remote to most Americans. Meanwhile, Governor Tim Walz appeared on Glennon Doyle's podcast, chastising the Trump campaign for "running millions of dollars of ads demonizing folks who are just trying to live their lives."

As the presidential election enters its final days, there are signs that Republican ads may be losing their impact. On Tuesday, Harris overtook Trump in an AP/NORC poll in the category of jobs and narrowed Trump's lead on gas prices to just two points, despite Trump and other Republicans continuing to focus heavily on transgender issues in their closing arguments. Higgs' defeat in New Brunswick is another early indication that this strategy may be ill-advised.