Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map: July 2024 Edition

In July, Rhode Island improved in risk for transgender people while Louisiana deteriorated. The national risk for transgender youth is high ahead of the 2024 elections.

Short summary of updates: The passage of extreme anti-trans laws in Louisiana targeting bathroom usage and legal recognition results in a downgrade for adults in the state to the worst risk level. The state remains at the worst risk level for trans youth. Rhode Island improves to “safest states” for transgender people due to the passage of shield legislation protecting healthcare from investigations and discrimination. The first change in the national risk level has also occurred: the risk level for transgender youth nationwide is high, due to factors around the 2024 election and budget bills targeting transgender people.

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 5 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, arrests for using the bathroom, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

In previous iterations of the map, the focus was entirely on the risk to transgender youth. When the map was first developed, bills targeting transgender youth were far more common. Unfortunately over the last year, the transgender youth map has lost all granularity, largely reducing to just two colors: red and blue, a set of states criminalizing trans youth and a set of states protecting them. You can still find this map at the end of the document, and it will be continually updated. The primary map of focus, though, will be the transgender adult map, as bills targeting trans adults have become far more common.

Methodology

The methodology used is primarily qualitative, with a scoring-rubric element for the worst bills. Part of the methodology is my own expert assessment of laws, of which I am well equipped to do. I have read all 550 bills that target trans people in America in 2023 and 586 so far in 2024. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation in this newsletter.

In terms of actual laws, I keep a rubric of the various types of laws that target transgender people. For transgender youth, the most concerning laws are those that prohibit gender-affirming care and mandate detransition. Additionally, bathroom bans, laws that rigidly define sex as binary, and restrictions on social transition are other key factors that negatively impact a state's ranking. For transgender adults, the primary legislative concerns include adult gender affirming care bans, bathroom bans, prohibitions on drag specifically aimed at trans people and pride events, restrictions on changing birth certificates and drivers licenses, and laws that end legal recognition for trans people entirely. These factors play a significant role in how I assess and rank a state's legislative risk.

The Adult Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Moves in this update: Rhode Island (Low Risk → Safest States), Louisiana (High Risk → Worst Laws)

• Summary of updates: Two major moves have occurred at the adult level. Rhode Island became the 17th state to pass a law or policy that makes the state a sanctuary state for transgender people. The bill, HB7577, was signed into law on June 25th and protects transgender people’s healthcare from out of state investigations. It also protects malpractice insurers from jacking up rates due to out of state laws, a new tactic among those opposed to trans care. In the opposite direction, Louisiana is downgraded into the list of the states with the worst laws targeting transgender people. This is primarily due to H608, a bathroom ban law that also ends many forms of legal recognition for transgender people.

Nationwide Risk: Moderate. Although energy around anti-trans legislation targeting adults seems to have peaked, the 2024 election could put transgender rights under threat nationally.

Here are the categories:

• Do Not Travel (FL): The only state earning a “Do Not Travel” advisory is Florida. Florida has a law that allows for the arrest of transgender people for using bathrooms according to their gender identity and another policy targets transgender people’s drivers licenses. Florida has also put into effect a policy that says trans people “misrepresenting” their gender on their drivers license could be guilty of fraud. Local LGBTQ+ orgs as well as HRC have issued travel advisories for the state. This analysis likewise concurs with such a rating.

• The Worst States (AL, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, OK, ND, TN, UT): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways. Kansas and Utah have bathroom bans for transgender adults. Alabama has also passed a Don’t Say Gay bill that includes a bathroom ban on college campuses. Many states, including Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. Other states, such as Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, prohibit any changes to birth certificates, forcing trans people to out themselves when showing their documents. In Kansas, this law could even force individuals who have updated their driver's licenses and birth certificates to see their gender markers reverted. These states also could start targeting adult gender affirming care - Florida has already done so, banning 80% of such care. Idaho has an extreme ban on state funds for gender affirming care.

• High-Risk States (AR, IA, IN, MO, NE, NH, OH, SC, TX, WV): All of these states have passed some anti-trans adult laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth and have seen new laws proposed this cycle going even further. Nebraska’s governor has issued an executive order ending legal recognition of trans people. Additionally, some of these states, including Arkansas, have laws that permit the refusal of medical care to LGBTQ+ individuals on religious grounds. Although each of these states has laws targeting transgender adults, none have done so to the extent of the worst states.

• Moderate-Risk States (AK, GA, KY, NC, SD, WY): These states have either passed one or two laws aimed at transgender adults or have enacted multiple laws targeting transgender youth, or are advancing negative laws quickly. For states focusing on trans youth, history shows they are more likely to introduce anti-trans legislation for adults in subsequent years. All of these states are under Republican control, either through supermajorities in the legislature or Republican governorships. Many have enacted "Don't Say Gay" provisions, which frequently result in the banning of transgender teachers - in Georgia, for instance, a teacher was fired for merely reading a book with a character that could vaguely be interpreted as transgender. Additionally, many have passed religious refusal rights bills. However, most of these states have either not yet ventured into anti-trans adult legislation or have only passed milder forms of such laws.

• Low-Risk States (AZ, DE, MI, NV, PA, VA, WI): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. For example, Arizona and Virginia have enacted anti-trans policies affecting youth but, due to state-specific factors, appear unlikely to extend such policies to adults. Conversely, Michigan, and Nevada have enacted fairly robust non-discrimination policies but fall short in ensuring healthcare equity and providing protections for incarcerated transgender individuals. While these states generally offer a safer environment for transgender adults, they stop short of going the extra mile to make their jurisdictions unequivocally safe places to reside.

• Most Protective States (CA, CO, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. States like Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, and Washington have enacted comprehensive health insurance laws that cover facial hair removal and an expanded range of medical procedures. Each of these states offers refugee protections for individuals fleeing more repressive states with anti-trans laws. Care is not only supported but also enjoys legal reinforcement from the state, ensuring accessibility as long as such treatments remain lawful at the national level. These states are the most likely to counteract federal anti-trans regulations if faced with a Republican presidency.

The Youth Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Very few states now occupy the middle ground in the realm of anti-trans legislation for transgender youth. Those marked in dark red have enacted bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, with many even mandating medical detransition for these young people. Conversely, states shown in dark blue have implemented refugee protection laws for trans youth seeking to escape the harsh legal environments of more restrictive states.

Moves in this update: Rhode Island (Low Risk → Safest States), National (Moderate Risk → High Risk)

• Summary of updates: Two shifts occurred for transgender youth this month. The first is that Rhode Island becomes safer, due to the passage of the aforementioned shield law. However, for the first time, youth care is at high risk nationwide. This is due to recent movement in the Senate targeting transgender youth care for those in the military, an increased chance of a Donald Trump presidency, and some potential movement against trans youth care by Senator Manchin, potentially buttressed by multiple statements from the Biden Administration against transgender youth surgical care. There is a higher risk of funding bans that will depend on how well more conservative Democrats hold against such negotiations.

Nationwide Risk: High. The 2024 election cycle has increased the threat level for transgender youth, and at least one national budget bill appears to be moving in a direction that could threaten care.