Updated Anti-trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

This map helps you determine the likelihood your state will pass anti-trans legislation in the next 2 years. If you are moving or looking to move, or make other decisions, please use this map!

***This map is now out of date. Please see the new map.

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering, considering states like Texas are actively proposing rounding up trans kids and taking them from their parents.

Methodology

The methodology I use is qualitative. I know the partisan breakdowns of the various states. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I also take into account election results - the last election shifted several states into lower risk due to Democratic victories at the state level. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation on this Substack.

Changes Since Last Map

The map has shifted in the direction of higher risk across the board. More anti-trans bills have been filed as of January 19th than in the entirety of 2022 - there were 155 in 2022. The bills that have been filed seem to be moving more quickly through committees. In particular, the velocity of anti-trans legislation in the midwest has justified an increase in risk level in North Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wyoming. Many severely anti-trans bills have been introduced in these states.

Elsewhere in the country there has been very little change. I have maintained Georgia and North Carolina’s risk levels after talking to activists on the ground as moderate. There is a chance that the extreme bans work their way through legislatures there, and the map may have to be upgraded accordingly depending on how things shake out.

All in all, this is going to be a very tough year for anti-trans legislation. If you are in a high risk state and have a trans kid, I would start to make preparations for seeking a medium risk or lower state. Even the medium risk states could see legislation targeting the trans community, but the ease in which bills seem to be moving through the high risk states has me concerned that we could see mass action on anti-trans bills this legislative cycle in most or all of the high risk states.

The Worst States

• Alabama

• Arkansas

• Florida

• Oklahoma

• Tennessee

• Texas

These states have passed the worst anti-transgender legislation or enforced existing laws against transgender already. The worst laws appear in these states. Texas is home to the weaponization of DFPS against transgender people. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee have all recently passed bathroom laws. Oklahoma currently has the most anti-trans bills of any state proposed, including a ban up to the age of 26 years old. Alabama and Arkansas have passed laws that detransition all trans teens. Florida has banned medicaid coverage for trans adults and is banning gender affirming care for trans teens. These are the states I get the most questions from people asking where they can flee.

High Risk States

• Idaho

• Indiana

• Iowa

• Kentucky

• Louisiana

• Mississippi

• Missouri

• Montana

• Nebraska

• North Dakota

• Ohio

• South Carolina

• South Dakota

• Utah

• Virginia

• West Virginia

• Wyoming

These states are all in line to join The Worst States. They’ve all proposed laws that states in the higher risk category have passed. Missouri nearly passed an anti-trans healthcare ban last year and currently has several bills including one that would call gender affirming care child abuse. Ohio has proposed a law to ban gender affirming care and it has continued to be pushed by the Republican party. Virginia is currently trying to force a school board policy that would ban trans students from bathrooms and force teachers to misgender and deadname them.

Some states defeated many of their anti-transgender laws this year and still maintain a significant risk profile going into the next cycle. Louisiana, which defeated most of its anti-transgender legislation, will be entering a new governors election this year. If a Republican wins, anti-transgender legislation that failed this year could be much more successful.

Lastly, some of these states have passed anti-trans legislation but defeated some of the most harsh anti-trans bills. Montana and Idaho defeated their youth detransition bills. However, given recent movement in North Dakota with several anti-trans bills being proposed and some of the most outlandish ones receiving hearings and going to the house floor, the general region has been upgraded in risk level. Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa all are seeing anti-trans legislative proposals right now.

Moderate Risk States

• Alaska

• Georgia

• Kansas

• New Hampshire

• North Carolina

This list of states has dwindled in the last month. Most states are leaning hard into the direction of bills targeting transgender people, or staying absolutely clear of them. These states represent special circumstances that make them hard to predict. North Carolina’s anti-trans medical care ban did not even get a committee hearing last year and it was the site of the famous bathroom ban, which has made them hesitant to pass further legislation. Georgia is Republican controlled, but candidates have failed heavily on anti-trans stances. Kansas has a Democratic governor. New Hampshire has a Republican majority, but one that has been more liberal than other states and has stayed away from passing anti-trans laws. Alaska has been relatively quiet on this front as well.

Low Risk States

• Arizona

• Delaware

• Maine

• Maryland

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nevada

• New Jersey

• New Mexico

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• Wisconsin

These states have a low risk of enacting extreme anti-transgender legislation within a single election cycle. Still, these states are unified by a lack of the strongest transgender protections. States in this category include states like Maryland, which failed to enact explicit healthcare protections or identity document protections. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Delaware all lack major healthcare protections for transgender people and are not currently considering refugee bills protecting trans people who are fleeing the aforementioned unsafe states (Rhode Island’s consideration did not get submitted this cycle).

Some states like Minnesota maintain strong cultural acceptance of transgender people but still lack the legal protections of safe state laws and full medical coverage that the top states have, and a right-leaning election cycle could change the tide. Some states like Arizona and Wisconsin saw positive election results that make them likely low risk as Democratic governors have taken over.

Most Protective States

• California

• Colorado

• Connecticut

• Hawaii

• Illinois

• Massachusetts

• New York

• Oregon

• Vermont

• Washington

• Washington, D.C.*

Transgender people in these states are better protected culturally and legally than in other states. States like Hawaii, Colorado, and Washington maintain explicit transgender healthcare policies that cover surgeries that often go without coverage in other states. Washington, D.C., Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California are currently considering policies or have passed policies that protect transgender refugees fleeing from other states.

Other states in this category like Illinois, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont maintain a strong history of transgender protections and show yearly legislation proposals to further protect transgender residents.