The Post-Election Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Map

These are the states to watch in the 2022-2023 legislative cycle for anti-trans laws.

***This map is now outdated. Please view the sticky on my substack page to see the newest map, or click this link here.

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the post-election legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering, considering states like Texas are actively proposing rounding up trans kids and taking them from their parents.

So with no further adieu, here is the legislative risk map and the summary of how the landscape has changed for states post-election:

The Legislative Risk Map:

There are instant trends that are visible. The south is still the most at risk for anti-trans legislation. Each state in dark red has passed some of the very worst anti-trans laws… Texas’ child abuse enforcement efforts against the parents of trans kids, Tennessee’s bathroom sign laws, and the detransition bills in Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida all make an appearance. The election did not change much in these states - they’re still very difficult as they were before.

Appalachia and the Midwest also see medium to high risk of anti-trans legislation. Many states in these regions came close to passing anti-transgender laws last cycle, and they are likely to continue to do so in the post-election environment. The election did make some states safer in these regions, however. Democratic governors retained power in Kansas, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, lowering the risk that anti-trans legislation will be passed there in the next two years. All three states see shifts in risk downward.

The biggest election effect happened in the southwest. Nevada maintained control of its legislature even though it lost the governorship, and Arizona sees a huge drop in risk as Katie Hobbs is elected there.

Some states did increase in risk but these states were already at highest risk to begin with. Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas are all undoubtedly riskier for anti-trans legislation in the next two years - these states were already highest risk to begin with. Ohio and Iowa likewise maintain their risk profiles and both states will likely see anti-trans initiatives working their way through the legislatures. Ohio already has HB454 and school board policies being heard only days after the election. Virginia also saw an increase in risk not associated with the election but with Glen Youngkin’s anti-trans executive actions.

Lastly, any state in any shade of red is a risk here. Mississippi defeated most of its bills this year but politicians there may set their eyes on anti-trans legislation with renewed vigor in the next two years. Georgia may not have let its bills through the legislature but there will certainly be anti-trans bills proposed and heard in Georgia this year. The only truly safe states are the dark blue-green ones and there is even still progress to be had in those states.

Here is a breakdown of the state categories and explanations for their risk level:

The Worst States

• Alabama

• Arkansas

• Florida

• Oklahoma

• Tennessee

• Texas

These states have passed the worst anti-transgender legislation or enforced existing laws against transgender already. The worst laws appear in these states. Texas is home to the weaponization of DFPS against transgender people. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee have all recently passed bathroom laws. Alabama and Arkansas have passed laws that detransition all trans teens. Florida has banned medicaid coverage for trans adults and is banning gender affirming care for trans teens. These are the states I get the most questions from people asking where they can flee.

High risk states

• Idaho

• Indiana

• Kentucky

• Louisiana

• Missouri

• Montana

• Ohio

• South Carolina

• South Dakota

• Utah

• Virginia

• West Virginia

These states are all in line to join The Worst States. They’ve all proposed laws that states in the higher risk category have passed. Missouri proposed anti-transgender laws that only were defeated because of an intra-party squabble over legislative redistricting which timed out all other legislation. Ohio currently is proposing a law to detransition all trans teenagers. Virginia is currently trying to force a school board policy that would ban trans students from bathrooms and force teachers to misgender and deadname them.

Some states defeated many of their anti-transgender laws this year and still maintain a significant risk profile going into the next cycle. Louisiana, which defeated most of its anti-transgender legislation, will be entering a new governors election next year. If a Republican wins, anti-transgender legislation that failed this year could be much more successful.

Lastly, some of these states have passed anti-trans legislation but defeated some of the most harsh anti-trans bills. Montana and Idaho defeated their youth detransition bills. However, with rising anti-transgender sentiment, these bills could see more progress within the next two years.

Moderate Risk States

• Alaska

• Georgia

• Iowa

• Kansas

• Mississippi

• Nebraska

• North Carolina

• North Dakota

• Wyoming

These states all have a moderate risk of advancing some of the worst anti-transgender legislation in the next two years. Most of these states defeated all or most of their anti-transgender legislation. Many of these states didn’t even see full floor votes of the worst anti-transgender legislation. For example, Mississippi’s detransition bill (mirrored from Alabama and Arkansas) died in committee without ever seeing a floor vote.

It is still likely that some or all of these states see anti-trans laws proposed, and it is also likely that at least a few of these states move up in risk level as more laws get passed.

Low Risk States

• Arizona

• Delaware

• Maine

• Maryland

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nevada

• New Hampshire

• New Jersey

• New Mexico

• Rhode Island

• Wisconsin

These states have a low risk of enacting extreme anti-transgender legislation within a single election cycle. Still, these states are unified by a lack of the strongest transgender protections. States in this category include states like Maryland, which failed to enact explicit healthcare protections or identity document protections. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Delaware all lack major healthcare protections for transgender people and are not currently considering refugee bills protecting trans people who are fleeing the aforementioned unsafe states (Rhode Island’s consideration did not get submitted this cycle).

Some states like Minnesota maintain strong cultural acceptance of transgender people but still lack the legal protections and a right-leaning election cycle could change the tide. Some states like Arizona and Wisconsin saw positive election results that make them likely low risk as Democratic governors have taken over.

Most Protective States

• California

• Colorado

• Connecticut

• Hawaii

• Illinois

• Massachusetts

• New York

• Oregon

• Vermont

• Washington

• Washington, D.C.*

Transgender people in these states are better protected culturally and legally than in other states. States like Hawaii, Colorado, and Washington maintain explicit transgender healthcare policies that cover surgeries that often go without coverage in other states. Washington, D.C., Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California are currently considering policies or have passed policies that protect transgender refugees fleeing from other states.

Other states in this category like Illinois, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont maintain a strong history of transgender protections and show yearly legislation proposals to further protect transgender residents.