Texas GOP Uses Emergency Flood Relief to Push Trans Bathroom Ban
After deadly flooding in Texas, Republicans used an emergency legislative session called to tackle the state’s most pressing issue: where trans people pee.
The Texas state senate passed a much-maligned anti-trans bathroom ban on August 6, but it still faces major hurdles before it could become law.
Senate Bill 7, deceptively named the “Texas Women’s Privacy Act,” seeks to pry its way into the bathrooms of kids and adults alike, if the GOP gets their way. It further codifies a legal (but unscientific) definition of biological “sex” and requires that children as young as 10 years old be forced into the bathroom that corresponds with their government-assigned gender. It covers any government-owned building or property–from domestic violence shelters and prisons, to public schools, to some airports, sports stadiums, and state parks, requiring them to discriminate against trans people.
“At a time when our communities are still reeling from the loss and devastation of the floods, right-wing legislators are choosing to divide and distract us by policing where transgender Texans pee,” said Marti Bier, Texas Freedom Network’s Chief Program Officer, in a public statement.
“Lawmakers are stoking fear and creating a dangerous environment where all people, regardless of gender identity, will be subject to violence and harassment in public spaces if they do not conform to someone’s binary, personal view of what a ‘man’ or ‘woman’ should look like.”
It also puts the civil liberties of intersex people in jeopardy, whose existence would be effectively erased by the law.
Governor Greg Abbott ushered the bill into the state house via a special session, which is an off-season convening of legislators to address time-sensitive issues. It has been scheduled since at least June, but a month later, once-in-a-century flooding overtook large swaths of the region, claiming well over 100 lives, many of whom were campers and counselors at a girls’ summer camp in Kerr County.
As a result, most of the agenda items were geared towards disaster preparedness and relief, but Abbott also put a highly controversial gerrymandering scheme and the anti-trans bathroom ban on the docket.
Such restrictions have been proposed in some form in the state for every legislative session since 2017, the same year Hurricane Harvey decimated the Lone Star State, killing more than 80 people.
“We need flood control, not bathroom control,” said Eve Gammill, a grandparent and Navy veteran, during the public comment hearing. She denounced the bill as a trans constituent of one of the bill’s sponsor, State Senator Mayes Middleton.
She was joined by over a hundred Texans who signed up to testify against the bill that day.
“If SB 7 passes, I won’t just lose access to a restroom. I’ll lose access to the future in this state I’ve worked so hard to build,” said Autumn Lauener, Vice President of the Texas Transgender Nondiscrimination Scholars, in a speech to lawmakers. “If this is what we’re calling justice, then justice has forgotten me. Justice has forgotten Texas.”
If a school, a park, etc., were to permit trans people to use their preferred bathroom, they could incur fines upwards of $25,000. Exceptions are carved out for emergency situations, such as a law enforcement response, or instances where a caregiver is present to aid a disabled person. But anyone can raise a complaint if they even suspect that a trans person may have used the “wrong” bathroom. This could subject transgender and cisgender people alike to dehumanizing investigations into their gender, sex and reproductive organs at the drop of a hat.
Proponents in the senate attempted to grandstand on the matter, asserting that the bill would reduce violence against women, but they could not produce empirical evidence to back this claim upon request. In fact, they couldn’t even name one instance of gender violence transpiring in a Texas bathroom.
Senate Bill 7 must now pass the House, but this seems unlikely, given the fact that most Democratic legislators fled the state in order to break quorum and delay any votes on the GOP’s racially-charged gerrymandering plan. In response, the Governor deployed law enforcement to try to apprehend the lawmakers. But their continued absence also stalls voting on the anti-trans provision indefinitely.
"We are fighting for representative democracy, and whether or not that will continue,” said State Representative James Talarico. “We're willing to face whatever consequences may come our way.”
They’re trying to use attacking trans people just minding our business to cover up GOP having sex with kids while letting dozens of other kids get murdered by psychos or murdered by mismanaged disasters. Tx is perfectly representative of entire GOP - unaccountable, useless, and godless scum
Laws like this are doomed. “You Can Aways Tell!” Right, silly of me to overlook that. I’d like to introduce you to an interesting bit of statistics called Bayes Theorem.
There is a famous theorem that connects conditional probabilities of two events. It's named Bayes' theorem, and the formula is as follows:
P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)
You can ask a question: "What is the probability of A given B if I know the likelihood of B given A?". This theorem sometimes provides surprising and unintuitive results. The most commonly described examples are drug testing and illness detection, which has a lot in common with the relative odds of finding some unique state in the population. Let's stick to the second one.
In a group of 1000 people, perhaps 10 of them are transgender persons. Everybody is transvestigated using some magical technique, which somehow shows the actual result in 95% of cases, an absurdly high accuracy, but there’s a point to this. Next, let’s find the probability of a person being actually transgender if their magical investigation result is positive.
Without thinking, you may predict, by intuition, that the result should be around 90%, right? Let's make some calculations and estimate the correct answer.
1. We will use a notation: C – cisgender, T – identified as transgender, + – test positive, - – test negative.
2. Rewrite information from the text above in a way of probabilities: P(C) = 0.99, P(T) = 0.01, P(+|T) = 0.95, P(-|T) = 0.05, P(+|C) = 0.05, P(-|C) = 0.95.
3. Work out the total probability of a test to be positive: P(+) = P(+|T) * P(T) + P(+|C) * P(C) = 0.95 * 0.01 + 0.05 * 0.99 = 0.059.
4. Use the Bayes' theorem to find the conditional probability P(T|+) = P(+|T) * P(T) / P(+) = 0.95 * 0.01 / 0.059 = 0.161.
Hmm... About 16%, not 90%! it isn't that high, is it? It turns out that this kind of paradox appears if there is a significant imbalance between the number of people in two distinct groups. Trans people are relatively rare, altering the probabilities in a very non-intuitive way.
Even if the “Transvestigators” have a 95% accuracy in identifying individuals as trans or cis, trans folks are uncommon, and they will be wrong 5 out of 6 guesses.
Enforcing laws aimed at transgender folks is going to be hard, with lots of false arrests. Your attempts at restriction will sweep up more folks who are not transgender than are, by a substantial margin. There will be litigation. There are so very many underemployed lawyers in the United States, and they will be delighted to go for 30% of a sure thing.