Second Period Anti-trans Legislative Risk Map

We move deeper into the legislative cycle as we begin to take stock of the states passing anti-trans laws. Momentum has slowed in some states. In others, things are heating up.

***THIS MAP IS OUT OF DATE. FIND THE MOST UP TO DATE ONE HERE.***

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

Methodology

The methodology I use is qualitative. I know the partisan breakdowns of the various states. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I also take into account election results - the last election shifted several states into lower risk due to Democratic victories at the state level. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation on this Substack.

Changes Since Last Map

New symbols that were added on the last map, the exclamation point and the green plus sign, indicate that a state has an imminent possibility of moving up or down in a risk category. If your state has a yellow exclamation point, there is a bill that has been engrossed and has passed one legislative chamber that I have identified as extremely dangerous towards transgender people.

States that have been identified as in imminent danger of moving up a risk category remain mostly the same, with a few exceptions. Indiana and Kentucky have been added due to anti-trans bills that are moving quickly in these two states. The states that are indicated as potentially moving down in risk category still include Minnesota and Maryland, both of which are advancing extremely protective bills such as Maryland’s Trans Health Equity Act and Minnesota’s Safe State bill for trans people seeking refuge from unsafe states. New Mexico has been added as well due to a number of protective bills that are moving through there including a right to gender affirming care and a safe state bill.

Sadly, we have seen a new addition to “worst states” in Mississippi. Mississippi was originally ranked medium risk on the very first risk assessment map, but as soon as the governor declared that transgender issues were a top priority, it was raised to high. Mississippi passed an extremely cruel gender affirming care ban for trans youth which would result in their forced medical detransition.

We have also seen a new improvement in risk profile. Wyoming has improved to medium risk for anti-trans legislation. Although a sports ban did make it through the state, the state beat back its anti-trans medical ban as well as its Don’t Say Gay or Trans bill.

The Worst States

• Alabama

• Arkansas

• Florida

• Mississippi

• Oklahoma

• South Dakota

• Tennessee

• Texas

• Utah

These states have passed the worst anti-transgender legislation or enforced existing laws against transgender already. The worst laws appear in these states. Texas is home to the weaponization of DFPS against transgender people and 34 anti-trans bills proposed this cycle. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Utah have all also passed gender affirming care bans for trans youth. Tennessee recently passed a bill banning drag in public that could even target pride. Oklahoma currently has the most anti-trans bills of any state proposed. Florida has banned medicaid coverage for trans adults and has some of the worst anti-trans bills proposed right now - including one that would allow the kidnapping of trans kids. These are the states I get the most questions from people asking where they can flee.

High Risk States

• Idaho

• Indiana

• Iowa

• Kentucky

• Louisiana

• Missouri

• Montana

• Nebraska

• Ohio

• South Carolina

• Virginia

• West Virginia

This list includes states that have seen proposed anti-trans bills last year that nearly passed, states that have already seen proposed bills that may pass this year, or states that otherwise have shown a willingness to target transgender people. Many states on this list are currently proposing bills that will send them into the ranks of the “worst states.” Mississippi, South Dakota, and Utah all moved off this list because of laws passed in those states.

The Rocky Mountain West has seen extreme bills moving through at breakneck speeds. Montana has multiple bills that would make it very hard to exist as a transgender person, such as drag bans, healthcare bans, and bans defining transgender people out of the law entirely. Similar legislation is moving through other states in this region, with Wyoming being a notable exception - Wyoming is no longer in this risk category because it defeated the worst of its anti-trans legislation.

Appalachian and Midwestern states are also seeing movement, with some states at imminent risk of moving up a risk category level. West Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana all have medical bans and other broad reaching bills moving through the legislature. Kentucky’s HB470, for instance, is one of the harshest bills moving through a state legislature in the entire United States. This bill would ban name changes for trans youth. Other states on this map like Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa have healthcare bills moving through committee, though they have not passed a full legislative chamber vote as of the time of the making of this map.

Virginia is also at high risk even though it’s anti-trans bills were beaten this cycle. That is because Glen Youngkin is using the powers of the governorship to directly target transgender youth. Recently he released model anti-trans school policies that will result in forced outing of trans students, bathroom bans, pronoun bans, and more should they be adopted.

Moderate Risk States

• Alaska

• Georgia

• Kansas

• New Hampshire

• North Carolina

• Wyoming

This list of states has grown by one - Wyoming defeated most of its anti-trans laws and moves down into a moderate risk category. The rest of the states on this list represent special circumstances that make them hard to predict. North Carolina’s anti-trans medical care ban did not even get a committee hearing last year and it was the site of the famous bathroom ban, which has made them hesitant to pass further legislation. There are bills that are moving there and the veto override margin is very tight, should the Democratic governor veto them. Georgia is Republican controlled, but candidates have failed heavily on anti-trans stances. New Hampshire has a Republican majority, but one that has been more liberal than other states and has stayed away from passing anti-trans laws. Alaska has been relatively quiet on this front as well.

Kansas has a Democratic governor, but the veto margin is similarly small there. Kansas deserves a special mention though as well as an exclamation point because several anti-trans bills have passed at least one legislative chamber there. This makes the state particularly risky, especially if any of the bills get sent to the governor.

Low Risk States

• Arizona

• Delaware

• Maine

• Maryland

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nevada

• New Jersey

• New Mexico

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• Wisconsin

These states have a low risk of enacting extreme anti-transgender legislation within a single election cycle. Still, these states are unified by a lack of the strongest transgender protections. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Delaware all lack major healthcare protections for transgender people and are not currently considering refugee bills protecting trans people who are fleeing the aforementioned unsafe states.

Some states like Minnesota maintain strong cultural acceptance of transgender people but still lack the legal protections of safe state laws and full medical coverage that the top states have, and a right-leaning election cycle could change the tide. Some states like Arizona and Wisconsin saw positive election results that make them likely low risk as Democratic governors have taken over.

Three states - Minnesota and Maryland - are potentially next in line to move to the “Most Protective States” category if they successfully pass their landmark transgender protection bills. Minnesota currently has a bill that would protect transgender refugees and providers fleeing from other states. Maryland is considering a bill that would give those on Medicaid coverage for FFS, hair removal and more. If these bills pass, they will be elevated into the “most protective states” category. New Mexico is considering a bill that would protect the right to gender affirming care.

Most Protective States

• California

• Colorado

• Connecticut

• Hawaii

• Illinois

• Massachusetts

• New York

• Oregon

• Vermont

• Washington

• Washington, D.C.*

Transgender people in these states are better protected culturally and legally than in other states. States like Hawaii, Colorado, and Washington maintain explicit transgender healthcare policies that cover surgeries that often go without coverage in other states. Washington, D.C., Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California are currently considering policies or have passed policies that protect transgender refugees fleeing from other states.

Other states in this category like Illinois, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont maintain a strong history of transgender protections and show yearly legislation proposals to further protect transgender residents.