Post-Election 2024 Anti-Trans Risk Assessment Map

The risk of severe anti-trans legislation has increased nationwide for transgender youth and adults.

Short summary of updates: The recent election results mean that the national risk picture for transgender individuals going into 2025 is high. National bills targeting transgender people in bathrooms, medical care, and more could lead to disruptions of travel and healthcare. On the risk map, this most notably manifests in D.C. losing it’s “safest states” designation as a result of policies targeting employees and visitors to the House office buildings, as well as the potential for federal action in the region. Other states that increase in risk include Wyoming and Georgia, with significant anti-trans legislation expected in those two states. On the youth side of things, Washington State is the sole bright spot as the state improves due to the reelection of Chris Reykdal to superintendent of public instruction.

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 5 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, arrests for using the bathroom, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

In previous iterations of the map, the focus was entirely on the risk to transgender youth. When the map was first developed, bills targeting transgender youth were far more common. Unfortunately over the last two years, the transgender youth map has lost all granularity, largely reducing to just two colors: red and blue, a set of states criminalizing trans youth and a set of states protecting them. You can still find this map at the end of the document, and it will be continually updated. The primary map of focus, though, will be the transgender adult map, as bills targeting trans adults have become far more common.

Methodology

The methodology used is primarily qualitative, with a scoring-rubric element for the worst bills. Part of the methodology is my own expert assessment of laws, of which I am well equipped to do. I have read all 550 bills that target trans people in America in 2023 and 586 in 2024. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation in this newsletter.

In terms of actual laws, I keep a rubric of the various types of laws that target transgender people. For transgender youth, the most concerning laws are those that prohibit gender-affirming care and mandate detransition. Additionally, bathroom bans, laws that rigidly define sex as binary, and restrictions on social transition are other key factors that negatively impact a state's ranking. For transgender adults, the primary legislative concerns include adult gender affirming care bans, bathroom bans, prohibitions on drag specifically aimed at trans people and pride events, restrictions on changing birth certificates and drivers licenses, and laws that end legal recognition for trans people entirely. These factors play a significant role in how I assess and rank a state's legislative risk.

The Adult Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Moves in this update: Wyoming (Moderate Risk → High Risk), Georgia (Moderate Risk → High Risk), Ohio (High Risk → Worst Laws), Washington, D.C. (Safest States → Low Risk)

• Summary of updates: The national picture remains unchanged, as a high risk was instituted for transgender adults on the map in the leadup to the 2024 election in anticipation that a Republican victory was possible. However, in the District of Columbia, anti-trans policies have already taken shape, including a ban on transgender people from bathrooms in House office buildings and further legislation proposed targeting trans people on all federal property, including potentially airports. As a result, the city is now in the “Low” risk category rather than the “Safest” category, though this move may not mean much for most residents who do not frequent Capitol buildings. Two other states, Wyoming and Georgia, expect anti-trans legislation targeting transgender adults to be heard in 2025 with local news covering such potential pushes, including bathroom bans.

Nationwide Risk: High. Attacks on trans people were a significant part of the 2024 election cycle, and Trump has already shown an appetite to appoint anti-transgender extremists to major posts in government. These include Harmeet Dhillon, a major anti-trans attorney who represents Chloe Cole, and Trump’s pick for FTC commissioner Andrew Ferguson, who has stated he will target youth and adult care.

Here are the categories:

• Do Not Travel (FL, TX): Two states have earned “Do Not Travel” advisories: Florida and Texas. Florida has a law that allows for the arrest of transgender people for using bathrooms according to their gender identity and another policy targets transgender people’s drivers licenses. Florida has also put into effect a policy that says trans people “misrepresenting” their gender on their drivers license could be guilty of fraud. Local LGBTQ+ orgs as well as HRC have issued travel advisories for the state. This analysis likewise concurs with such a rating. In Texas, the state is not only ignoring court ordered drivers license changes for trans adults, but it is also creating a database of people attempting to make such changes. Meanwhile, Odessa, TX has passed a bounty ordinance that puts $10,000 bounties on transgender people in bathrooms, with more legislation expected this year.

• The Worst States (AL, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, OH, OK, ND, TN, UT): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways. Kansas and Utah have bathroom bans for transgender adults. Alabama has also passed a Don’t Say Gay bill that includes a bathroom ban on college campuses. Many states, including Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. Other states, such as Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, prohibit any changes to birth certificates, forcing trans people to out themselves when showing their documents. In Kansas, this law could even force individuals who have updated their driver's licenses and birth certificates to see their gender markers reverted. These states also could start targeting adult gender affirming care - Florida has already done so, banning 80% of such care. Idaho has an extreme ban on state funds for gender affirming care.

• High-Risk States (AR, GA, IA, IN, MO, NE, NH, SC, WV, WY): All of these states have passed anti-trans laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth and have seen new laws proposed this cycle going even further. Nebraska’s governor has issued an executive order ending legal recognition of trans people. Additionally, some of these states, including Arkansas, have laws that permit the refusal of medical care to LGBTQ+ individuals on religious grounds. Although each of these states has laws targeting transgender adults, none have done so to the extent of the worst states.

• Moderate-Risk States (AK, KY, NC, SD): These states have either passed one or two laws aimed at transgender adults or have enacted multiple laws targeting transgender youth, or are advancing negative laws quickly. For states focusing on trans youth, history shows they are more likely to introduce anti-trans legislation for adults in subsequent years. Most of these states are under Republican control, either through supermajorities in the legislature or Republican governorships. Many have enacted "Don't Say Gay" provisions, which frequently result in the banning of transgender teachers. Additionally, many have passed religious refusal rights bills. However, most of these states have either not yet ventured into anti-trans adult legislation or have only passed milder forms of such laws.

• Low-Risk States (AZ, DE, MI, NV, PA, VA, WI, DC): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. For example, Arizona and Virginia have enacted anti-trans policies affecting youth but, due to state-specific factors, appear unlikely to extend such policies to adults. Conversely, Michigan, and Nevada have enacted fairly robust non-discrimination policies but fall short in ensuring healthcare equity and providing protections for incarcerated transgender individuals. While these states generally offer a safer environment for transgender adults, they stop short of going the extra mile to make their jurisdictions unequivocally safe places to reside. In the case of the District of Columbia, it may fall under attack from Congress and executive actions, meaning it can no longer be considered “most protective.” This most recently was manifested with the DC House bathroom ban.

• Most Protective States (CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. States like Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, and Washington have enacted comprehensive health insurance laws that cover facial hair removal and an expanded range of medical procedures. Each of these states offers refugee protections for individuals fleeing more repressive states with anti-trans laws. Care is not only supported but also enjoys legal reinforcement from the state, ensuring accessibility as long as such treatments remain lawful at the national level. These states are the most likely to counteract federal anti-trans regulations if faced with a Republican presidency.

The Youth Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

Very few states now occupy the middle ground in the realm of anti-trans legislation for transgender youth. Those marked in dark red have enacted bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, with many even mandating medical detransition for these young people. Conversely, states shown in dark blue have implemented refugee protection laws for trans youth seeking to escape the harsh legal environments of more restrictive states.

Moves in this update: Washington, D.C. (Safest States → Low Risk), Washington State (Low Risk → Safest States)

• Summary of updates: Two changes occurred this month. Washington, D.C. has been downgraded to Low Risk instead of Safest States due to expected federal legislation targeting transgender people. Washington State, meanwhile, has improved to Safest States, a category it once held but lost after the passage of a bill that could lead to forced outings. With the reelection of Chris Reykdal to superintendent of public instruction and strong protections in place, those concerns are somewhat mitigated. Meanwhile, the state maintains extensive protections for trans youth.

Nationwide Risk: High. The 2025 election results are likely more dangerous for trans youth than even for adults. Nationwide bans are in the picture and the bulk of legislation will likely target transgender youth, potentially even in “safe” states.