New Map! Anti-Transgender Legislative Risk By State

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years. This is my assessment of the risk level for the worst anti-transgender legislation by state.

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby. Over the last week, I have worked on a resource to help people make that decision - a map that can serve as a guide for transgender safety:

The Map - Anti Transgender Legislative Risk By State

Before we look at each risk category, there are some clear trends in the map overall. Southern states are at the biggest risk, with a few exceptions: Mississippi, Georgia, and North Carolina fared well at defeating anti-trans legislation this year. The map overlays well with the abortion ban maps and this should not be surprising - the two issues are very closely linked and fought for by the same organizations.

As for safe states, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Mexico are left out of the safest states. This is because they have not passed the highest levels of protections for transgender people in healthcare, refugee protection, and identity documents. States like Minnesota which have strong cultural acceptance of transgender people still lack the legal protections required to bump the state into the safest category.

Lastly, any state in any shade of red is a risk here. Virginia can easily pass anti-trans legislation within a single election cycle. Mississippi defeated most of its bills this year but politicians there may set their eyes on anti-trans legislation with renewed vigor in the next two years.

The Worst States

• Alabama

• Arkansas

• Florida

• Oklahoma

• Tennessee

• Texas

These states have passed the worst anti-transgender legislation or enforced existing laws against transgender already. The worst laws appear in these states. Texas is home to the weaponization of DFPS against transgender people. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee have all recently passed bathroom laws. Alabama and Arkansas have passed laws that detransition all trans teens. Florida is working on banning medicaid coverage for transgender adults. These are the states I get the most questions from people asking where they can flee.

High risk states

• Arizona

• Idaho

• Indiana

• Kentucky

• Louisiana

• Missouri

• Montana

• Ohio

• South Carolina

• South Dakota

• West Virginia

These states are all in line to join The Worst States. They’ve all proposed laws that states in the higher risk category have passed. Missouri proposed anti-transgender laws that only were defeated because of an intra-party squabble over legislative redistricting which timed out all other legislation. Ohio currently is proposing a law to detransition all trans teenagers.

Some states defeated many of their anti-transgender laws this year and still maintain a significant risk profile going into the next cycle. Louisiana, which defeated most of its anti-transgender legislation, will be entering a new governors election next year. If a Republican wins, anti-transgender legislation that failed this year could be much more successful.

Lastly, some of these states have passed anti-trans legislation but defeated some of the most harsh anti-trans bills. Montana and Idaho defeated their youth detransition bills. However, with rising anti-transgender sentiment, these bills could see more progress within the next two years.

Moderate risk states

• Alaska

• Georgia

• Iowa

• Kansas

• Mississippi

• Nebraska

• North Carolina

• North Dakota

• Pennsylvania

• Utah

• Virginia

• Wisconsin

• Wyoming

These states all have a moderate risk of advancing some of the worst anti-transgender legislation in the next two years. Most of these states defeated all or most of their anti-transgender legislation handily. Many of these states didn’t even see full floor votes of the worst anti-transgender legislation. For example, Mississippi’s detransition bill (mirrored from Alabama and Arkansas) died in committee without ever seeing a floor vote.

Some states like Pennsylvania and Virginia advanced no anti-transgender legislation this year, not even sports bans. They still maintain a moderate risk profile because of close election races and a likelihood of joining in on anti-transgender legislation should any of these states achieve a Republican trifecta. Virginia’s Glen Youngkin explicitly has set an anti-transgender agenda. Pennsylvania’s Governor Tom Wolf vetoed anti-transgender legislation.

Low Risk States

• Delaware

• Maine

• Maryland

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nevada

• New Hampshire

• New Jersey

• New Mexico

• Rhode Island

These states have a minimal risk of enacting extreme anti-transgender legislation within a single election cycle. Still, these states are unified by a lack of the strongest transgender protections. States in this category include states like Maryland, which failed to enact explicit healthcare protections or identity document protections. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Delaware all lack major healthcare protections for transgender people and are not currently considering refugee bills protecting trans people who are fleeing the aforementioned unsafe states (Rhode Island’s consideration did not get submitted this cycle).

Some states like Minnesota maintain strong cultural acceptance of transgender people but still lack the legal protections and a right-leaning election cycle could change the tide. Lastly, states like Nevada and New Mexico have shown little movement for or against transgender rights and thus cannot be considered to be in the safest category.

The Safest States

• California

• Colorado

• Connecticut

• Hawaii

• Illinois

• Massachusetts

• New York

• Oregon

• Vermont

• Washington

• Washington, D.C.*

Transgender people in these states are better protected culturally and legally than in other states. States like Hawaii, Colorado, and Washington maintain explicit transgender healthcare policies that cover surgeries that often go without coverage in other states. Washington, D.C. and California are currently considering policies that protect transgender refugees fleeing from other states. Connecticut already passed its refugee bill.

Other states in this category like Illinois, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont maintain a strong history of transgender protections and show yearly legislation proposals to further protect transgender residents.