First Period Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

We are completing the first period of state legislatures introducing, debating, and passing anti-trans bills. We now have a better assessment of where we are at in relation to them passing.

***THIS MAP IS OUT OF DATE. FIND THE MOST UP TO DATE ONE HERE.***

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering, considering states like Texas, Tennessee, and Wyoming are actively seeing legislation proposing rounding up trans kids and taking them from their parents. Several more states are moving to cut off gender affirming care - some already have.

Methodology

The methodology I use is qualitative. I know the partisan breakdowns of the various states. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I also take into account election results - the last election shifted several states into lower risk due to Democratic victories at the state level. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation on this Substack.

Changes Since Last Map

Firstly, two new symbols have been added to the map. A green plus marker indicates that a state has a highly positive and protective bill for transgender people that shows a good likelihood of passing. Not all protective bills will make a state eligible for rising to the rank of “safest states,” only bills that go above and beyond such as a safe state bill for transgender refugees or a healthcare coverage bill that covers all WPATH 8 procedures make a state eligible for increasing in safety status. There is also a yellow exclamation point which indicates that a state currently has legislation that is at high risk of passing which would target the transgender community in new and cruel ways - these include healthcare bans, child abuse bills, and more.

In this particular map, we unfortunately see Utah and South Dakota drop to the rank of the “worst states.” This is because both states have passed healthcare bans. These bans are exceedingly cruel - in fact, South Dakota’s ban has specific provisions on how to medically detransition trans teens. Several more states have exclamation points because their healthcare bans have passed at least one committee or legislative chamber or show otherwise significant signs of movement. Missouri, for instance, has an exclamation point only because there has been a renewed effort to push for healthcare bans and local activists are quite concerned about their likelihood of passing. Montana, West Virginia, and Mississippi are of particular concern as their bans have passed an entire chamber.

On the positive side, we see Maryland and Minnesota with strong possibilities of rising to the safest states. Maryland has a transgender health equity bill with 50 cosponsors that could mandate coverage of facial feminization surgery, hair removal, and more for those on Medicaid. Minnesota has a safe state bill moving through its legislature that could protect transgender refugees and providers who are fleeing some of the more unsafe states.

The Worst States

• Alabama

• Arkansas

• Florida

• Oklahoma

• South Dakota

• Tennessee

• Texas

• Utah

These states have passed the worst anti-transgender legislation or enforced existing laws against transgender already. The worst laws appear in these states. Texas is home to the weaponization of DFPS against transgender people. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee have all recently passed bathroom laws. Oklahoma currently has the most anti-trans bills of any state proposed, including a ban up to the age of 26 years old. Alabama and Arkansas have passed laws that detransition all trans teens. Florida has banned medicaid coverage for trans adults and is banning gender affirming care for trans teens. Utah passed a gender affirming care ban recently. South Dakota’s gender affirming care ban, which passed recently, even contains provisions on how to medically detransition trans teens. These are the states I get the most questions from people asking where they can flee.

High Risk States

• Idaho

• Indiana

• Iowa

• Kentucky

• Louisiana

• Mississippi

• Missouri

• Montana

• Nebraska

• North Dakota

• Ohio

• South Carolina

• Virginia

• West Virginia

• Wyoming

This list includes states that have seen proposed anti-trans bills last year that nearly passed, states that have already seen proposed bills that may pass this year, or states that otherwise have shown a willingness to target transgender people. States like Ohio and Indiana proposed bills last year to medically detransition trans youth and I expect to see more this year. Ohio’s bill was particularly contentious and came within striking distance of passing a state chamber.

Many states on this list are currently proposing bills that will send them into the ranks of the “worst states.” Utah and South Dakota both moved off this list because of laws passed in both states. States like Montana, Missouri, Mississippi, West Virginia, and Idaho have bills moving through at breakneck speeds and all are at risk of dropping into a worse risk category.

Moderate Risk States

• Alaska

• Georgia

• Kansas

• New Hampshire

• North Carolina

This list of states has dwindled in the last month. Most states are leaning hard into the direction of bills targeting transgender people, or staying absolutely clear of them. These states represent special circumstances that make them hard to predict. North Carolina’s anti-trans medical care ban did not even get a committee hearing last year and it was the site of the famous bathroom ban, which has made them hesitant to pass further legislation. Georgia is Republican controlled, but candidates have failed heavily on anti-trans stances. Kansas has a Democratic governor. New Hampshire has a Republican majority, but one that has been more liberal than other states and has stayed away from passing anti-trans laws. Alaska has been relatively quiet on this front as well.

Low Risk States

• Arizona

• Delaware

• Maine

• Maryland

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nevada

• New Jersey

• New Mexico

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• Wisconsin

These states have a low risk of enacting extreme anti-transgender legislation within a single election cycle. Still, these states are unified by a lack of the strongest transgender protections. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Delaware all lack major healthcare protections for transgender people and are not currently considering refugee bills protecting trans people who are fleeing the aforementioned unsafe states.

Some states like Minnesota maintain strong cultural acceptance of transgender people but still lack the legal protections of safe state laws and full medical coverage that the top states have, and a right-leaning election cycle could change the tide. Some states like Arizona and Wisconsin saw positive election results that make them likely low risk as Democratic governors have taken over.

Two states - Minnesota and Maryland - are potentially next in line to move to the “Most Protective States” category if they successfully pass their landmark transgender protection bills. Minnesota currently has a bill that would protect transgender refugees and providers fleeing from other states. Maryland is considering a bill that would give those on Medicaid coverage for FFS, hair removal and more. If these bills pass, they will be elevated into the “most protective states” category.

Most Protective States

• California

• Colorado

• Connecticut

• Hawaii

• Illinois

• Massachusetts

• New York

• Oregon

• Vermont

• Washington

• Washington, D.C.*

Transgender people in these states are better protected culturally and legally than in other states. States like Hawaii, Colorado, and Washington maintain explicit transgender healthcare policies that cover surgeries that often go without coverage in other states. Washington, D.C., Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California are currently considering policies or have passed policies that protect transgender refugees fleeing from other states.

Other states in this category like Illinois, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont maintain a strong history of transgender protections and show yearly legislation proposals to further protect transgender residents.