April Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Map

We are getting closer to Sine Die for many states. As state legislative sessions close, states will lose the chance to pass anti-trans legislation. Here is the risk of each state!

***THIS MAP IS OUT OF DATE. FIND THE MOST UP TO DATE ONE HERE.***

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

Methodology

The methodology I use is qualitative. I know the partisan breakdowns of the various states. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I also take into account election results - the last election shifted several states into lower risk due to Democratic victories at the state level. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation on this newsletter.

Changes Since Last Map

This week, Montana, Idaho, and Indiana have been classified as the "highest risk" states, with each facing the possibility of enacting major gender-affirming care bans. Although these states have yet to sign the bans into law, there is a high probability that they will. Additionally, they have passed other restrictive bills this legislative session, which has placed them among the states with the most stringent anti-transgender laws. If any of these three states veto the legislation, they may be reclassified into a lower risk category. However, other pending bills could potentially return them to the highest risk category.

We have one state that has moved into the most protective category - Maryland. That is because Maryland passed the Transgender Healthcare Equity Act. This makes Maryland one of only four states that protect trans healthcare equity and require Medicaid to cover modern standards of care for trans people - that includes hair removal, facial surgery, voice therapy, and more. The passage of this act means Maryland finally goes above and beyond in protecting its transgender residents.

The Worst States

• Alabama

• Arkansas

• Florida

• Georgia

• Idaho

• Indiana

• Iowa

• Kentucky

• Mississippi

• Montana

• Oklahoma

• South Dakota

• Tennessee

• Texas

• Utah

These states have passed the worst anti-transgender legislation or enforced existing laws against transgender already. The worst laws appear in these states. Texas is home to the weaponization of DFPS against transgender people and 34 anti-trans bills proposed this cycle. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Utah have all also passed gender affirming care bans for trans youth. Tennessee recently passed a bill banning drag in public that could even target pride. Oklahoma currently has the most anti-trans bills of any state proposed. Florida has banned medicaid coverage for trans adults and has some of the worst anti-trans bills proposed right now - including a bill that would fine people $35,000 for accusing someone of transphobia. Kentucky just passed SB150, which tells doctors how to detransition trans youth. These are the states I get the most questions from people asking where they can flee.

High Risk States

• Louisiana

• Missouri

• Nebraska

• North Dakota

• Ohio

• South Carolina

• Virginia

• West Virginia

This list is the one to watch for current and future legislation. All of these states are at high risk of moving into the ranks of the “worst states” in terms of anti-trans laws. Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, South Carolina, and Louisiana are at high risk, but are not in imminent danger of passing one of the major anti-trans bills. That does not mean that trans people in them can rest easy - states can rush through bills like we saw in places like Iowa and Kentucky, of which both rushed through gender affirming care bans.

This list is sadly shrinking as many of these states have moved into the highest risk category, especially in the Mountain West. Some states have yet to move up in risk category. These states include North Dakota, Nebraska, and Missouri. All three of these states are at very high risk. North Dakota’s governor just vetoed a school pronoun bill there and Nebraska currently has an active filibuster going led by Senator Cavanaugh.

One important note is that Virginia is also at high risk even though its anti-trans bills were beaten this cycle. That is because Glen Youngkin is using the powers of the governorship to directly target transgender youth. His model anti-trans school policies will result in forced outing of trans students, bathroom bans, pronoun bans, and more should they be adopted.

Moderate Risk States

• Alaska

• Kansas

• New Hampshire

• North Carolina

• Wyoming

The states on this list represent special circumstances that make them hard to predict. North Carolina’s anti-trans medical care ban did not even get a committee hearing last year and it was the site of the famous bathroom ban, which has made them hesitant to pass further legislation. There are bills that are moving there and the veto override margin is very tight, should the Democratic governor veto them. New Hampshire has a Republican majority, but one that has been more liberal than other states and has stayed away from passing anti-trans laws. Alaska has been relatively quiet on this front as well, though there are some sports and education bans on the move there. Wyoming will remain light red even though it is in Sine Die as the worst anti-trans bills failed there to account for any future special sessions or 2024 election results.

Kansas has a Democratic governor, but the veto margin is similarly small there. Kansas deserves a special mention though as well as an exclamation point because several anti-trans bills have passed at least one legislative chamber there. This makes the state particularly risky, especially if any of the bills get sent to the governor.

Low Risk States

• Arizona

• Delaware

• Maine

• Michigan

• Nevada

• New Jersey

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• Wisconsin

This list has shrunk by one for this release: Maryland has passed the Transgender Healthcare Equity Act guaranteeing Medicaid coverage for all modern trans procedures and so it moves into the most protective category.

These states have a low risk of enacting extreme anti-transgender legislation within a single election cycle. Still, these states are unified by a lack of the strongest transgender protections. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Delaware all lack major healthcare protections for transgender people and are not currently considering refugee bills protecting trans people who are fleeing the aforementioned unsafe states.

Arizona and Wisconsin saw positive election results last cycle and they remain low risk. Arizona has seen a number of anti-trans bills pushed forward, but there has been no indication that the Democratic governor has any interest in signing them.

Michigan remains in this category despite the passage of its equality act. It still lacks other major protections such as a refugee protection law from other anti-trans states, coverage for modern standards of care in health insurance, no-hassle removal of publication requirements for name changes, mandated LGBTQ+ teaching in schools, and a banning of the gay and trans panic defense.

Most Protective States

• California

• Colorado

• Connecticut

• Hawaii

• Illinois

• Maryland

• Massachusetts

• Minnesota

• New Mexico

• New York

• Oregon

• Vermont

• Washington

• Washington, D.C.*

Transgender people in these states are better protected culturally and legally than in other states. States like Hawaii, Colorado, Maryland, and Washington maintain explicit transgender healthcare policies that cover surgeries that often go without coverage in other states. Washington, D.C., Massachusetts, Minnesota, Connecticut, and California are currently considering policies or have passed policies that protect transgender refugees fleeing from other states.

Other states in this category like Illinois, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont maintain a strong history of transgender protections and show yearly legislation proposals to further protect transgender residents.