Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map: New Adult Map

This map shows the 2-year risk for anti-trans laws. For the first time, included in this release is a new adult map showing the risk for trans adults in the United States.

New To The Map

Regular readers will notice a significant shift in the focus of the anti-trans legislative risk assessment map. Previously centered on transgender youth, the map has had to evolve to reflect a broader legislative assault. Initially, this wave of anti-trans laws predominantly targeted transgender teens in sports, schools, and healthcare. However, the scope has widened to include transgender adults as well. The former map initially offered a nuanced landscape; it captured the diverse state stances on laws affecting transgender youth. Now, most states have polarized into two main camps—either imposing blanket restrictions on trans youth or extending protections to them. Consequently, the old map has lost much of its granularity, largely reducing to two colors: red and blue. Yet, the situation for transgender adults remains less uniform, as many states targeting youth have not yet extended such legislation to adults. But given the current trend, this disparity will likely change in 2024, prompting me to begin mapping laws that affect transgender adults.

For those who made use of the old map, fear not: the map will continue to be posted in all releases moving forward. It will continue to be updated for parents who are looking at the legal landscape for trans kids and using the map to make important decisions. I understand how helpful this map has been for so many of you, and fully intend to keep updating it - you can find the youth map at the end of this story.

About The Map

I have tracked anti-transgender legislation for 3 years @erininthemorn on Twitter and TikTok. Every day, I’ve gotten messages from worried people wondering how they are supposed to assess their risk of staying in their home state. The messages range from parents of trans youth wondering if their children will be taken from them to trans teachers wondering if their jobs will be safe in coming years. Sometimes people just want to know if there is a safer state they can move to nearby.

I created the legislative risk map specifically to help answer that question. Now more than ever, it is a question that needs answering for so many transgender people facing forced medical detransition, arrests for using the bathroom, bans on the use of our names, pronouns, and identification documents, and many other curtailments of our rights to exist in public life.

Methodology

The methodology used is primarily qualitative, with a scoring-rubric element for the worst bills. Part of the methodology is my own expert assessment of laws, of which I am well equipped to do. I have read all 532 bills that target trans people in America. I have watched hundreds of hours of hearings on anti-trans legislation and am fully aware of all of the players nationally as well as where they are making their pushes against trans rights. I have followed the vote count and talk to activists on the ground in each state. I also take into account election results - the last election shifted several states into lower risk due to Democratic victories at the state level. I am looking at how similar states are moving in their legislative cycles. Lastly, I watch for statements by governors and bill drafts to see if the Republican party in various states seems to be pushing anti-trans legislation heavily - you can see many examples of such legislation in this newsletter.

In terms of actual laws, I keep a rubric of the various types of laws that target transgender people. For transgender youth, the most concerning laws are those that prohibit gender-affirming care and mandate detransition. Additionally, bathroom bans, laws that rigidly define sex as binary, and restrictions on social transition are other key factors that negatively impact a state's ranking. For transgender adults, the primary legislative concerns include adult gender affirming care bans, bathroom bans, prohibitions on drag specifically aimed at trans people and pride events, restrictions on changing birth certificates, and laws that define sex in a way that effectively erases trans individuals from legal codes. These factors play a significant role in how I assess and rank a state's legislative risk.

The Adult Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

This updated map delineates the legislative risks concerning laws aimed at transgender adults in the United States. This year has witnessed a mounting legislative assault on this demographic. Laws have been passed in some states banning them from bathrooms, including in Florida, where transgender adults can be thrown in jail for using the bathroom of their gender identity. Other states have gone as far as to legislatively erase transgender individuals, stripping away all legal recognition and rights related to their gender identities. States like Florida have also begun targeting adult trans care, eliminating up to 80% of such services within their borders. Given these developments, monitoring laws affecting transgender adults has become critically important and will be the focal point in future editions of this map.

Here are the categories:

• The Worst States (FL, KS, MT, ND, OK, TN): These states have passed deeply troubling legislation targeting transgender adults in extremely harmful new ways, with Florida earning a "Do Not Travel" advisory for transgender individuals. States like Florida and Kansas have imposed draconian bathroom bans, while Tennessee briefly enacted a law requiring signage to warn of the presence of transgender individuals in restrooms. Many, including Florida, Kansas, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, have gone so far as to legislatively erase transgender people, effectively removing any legal rights associated with their gender identities. Other states, such as Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, prohibit any changes to birth certificates, forcing trans people to out themselves when showing their documents. In Kansas, this law could even force individuals who have updated their driver's licenses and birth certificates to see their gender markers reverted. These states also could start targeting adult gender affirming care - Florida has already done so, banning 80% of such care.

• High-Risk States (AL, AR, MO, MS, NE, SC, TX, WV): All of these states have passed some anti-trans adult laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated individuals as well as transgender youth. Nebraska has issued an executive order defining sex as binary. Additionally, some of these states, including Alabama and Arkansas, have laws that permit the refusal of medical care to LGBTQ+ individuals on religious grounds. Although each of these states has laws targeting transgender adults, none have done so to the extent of the worst states. All remain at high risk for escalating such legislative actions.

• Moderate-Risk States (AK, GA, IA, ID, IN, KY, LA, NC, OH, SD, UT, WY): These states have either passed one or two laws aimed at transgender adults or have enacted multiple laws targeting transgender youth. For states focusing on the youth, history shows they are more likely to introduce anti-trans legislation for adults in subsequent years. All of these states are under Republican control, either through supermajorities in the legislature or Republican governorships. Many have enacted "Don't Say Gay" provisions, which frequently result in the banning of transgender teachers - in Georgia, for instance, a teacher was fired for merely reading a book with a character that could vaguely be interpreted as transgender. Additionally, many have passed religious refusal rights bills. However, most of these states have either not yet ventured into anti-trans adult legislation or have only passed milder forms of such laws.

• Low-Risk States (AZ, DE, ME, MI, NH, NV, PA, RI, VA, WI): These states have largely refrained from targeting transgender adults, although they haven't taken extraordinary steps to protect adult transgender rights either. For example, Arizona and Virginia have enacted anti-trans policies affecting youth but, due to state-specific factors, appear unlikely to extend such policies to adults. Conversely, Michigan, Maine, and Nevada have enacted fairly robust non-discrimination policies but fall short in ensuring healthcare equity and providing protections for incarcerated transgender individuals. While these states generally offer a safer environment for transgender adults, they stop short of going the extra mile to make their jurisdictions unequivocally safe places to reside.

• Most Protective States (CA, CO, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, VT, WA): These states have gone above and beyond in safeguarding the rights and well-being of transgender individuals, making them highly desirable places to live for those in search of security. States like Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, and Washington have enacted comprehensive health insurance laws that cover facial hair removal and an expanded range of medical procedures. Each of these states offers refugee protections for individuals fleeing more repressive states with anti-trans laws. Care is not only supported but also enjoys legal reinforcement from the state, ensuring accessibility as long as such treatments remain lawful at the national level. These states are the most likely to counteract federal anti-trans regulations if faced with a Republican presidency.

The Youth Trans Legislative Risk Assessment Map

For those who have followed the anti-trans risk map up to now, it has previously focused heavily on transgender youth. The pace of laws has noticeably slowed as legislatures across the United States have adjourned. In the last two months, only one new state has passed an anti-trans youth law - North Carolina. Although that law was vetoed, the legislature overrode the veto and now the state has a gender affirming care ban for trans youth in effect.

Very few states now occupy the middle ground in the realm of anti-trans legislation. Those marked in dark red have enacted bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, with many even mandating medical detransition for these young people. Conversely, states shown in dark blue have implemented refugee protection laws for trans youth seeking to escape the harsh legal environments of more restrictive states. Alaska and Wyoming remain outliers, with real uncertainty about their legislative directions. Alaska recently approved a sports ban for transgender individuals through its state board of education, but otherwise, neither state has shown significant inclination to partake in the current anti-trans legislative wave. Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, and South Carolina, while not having passed gender-affirming care bans, all have other laws that heavily target transgender youth and remain at high risk.