10 Comments

Very troubling to see the high risk category gain a foothold in the Northeast (i.e. New Hampshire), surrounded by deep blue states. The legislature there ought to be ashamed. If I recall correctly, NH was a light blue (low risk) state not too long ago.

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One more comment: with Trump leading in the polls, and with the potential that the recent felony convictions won’t matter in terms of how people vote, the single biggest question is whether, and to what extent, the deep blue states are able to hold up against what is likely to be a tidal wave of national anti-trans legislation in 2025. In that respect, the single most important sentence from Erin’s article is (in reference to the deep blue protective states): “These states are most likely to counteract federal anti-trans regulations if faced with a Republican presidency”.

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Well, the Republicans are unlikely to maintain control of the House, and they'd have to nuke the filibuster even if they maintained control of the Senate (more likely but still not certain).

But yeah, if push comes to shove, blue states with legislative and/or constitutional protections aren't going to give them up and this could end up in the dissolution of the United States.

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Agree with you about the House and Senate. However, a future GOP presidency wouldn’t need a compliant Congress to do damage to trans people. They could, for example, weaponize the FDA against trans people by declaring hormones experimental, or controlled substances, or illegal for people of certain “assigned birth sex” to use, and so on. Granted, this will be challenging for them, since cis people use those hormones too. But if they want to find a way badly enough, they probably can. Future SCOTUS rulings, and executive orders, also hang like a dark cloud, too.

Based on recent polls, I feel like the electoral outlook is rather grim. The only comfortable pathway at this point, really, is for Biden to somehow turn this around and for the House to be retaken by Democrats.

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It is very unlikely these days for either party to win the presidency and lose the House. If Trump wins, Republicans will almost certainly win the House as well. The Senate is not so strongly coupled because only a third of the seats are up for election, but it's a tough map for Democrats for that same reason.

The election will very likely result in unified control of the federal government by one party or the other. We need to everything we can to ensure it's the right one.

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founding

Thank you for doing this, and I'm sorry you have to.

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I wish this update were like the previous update, where one state (to wit, Maine) went in the more protective as opposed to the more genocidal direction…

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It’s official…the south SUCKS! Welcome to Drump America: the least educated, least healthy and overly ‘christian’. The movie ‘Idiocracy’ is becoming a documentary!😱😡

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Thank you, Erin, for your painstaking work to put these maps together!

I live in Washington State one of the states with the best protection fir the transgender adults and kids. But I am watching loccl school boards (especially in rural areas) changing their “gender inclusive schools” procedures to require the staff and teachers to out their students adopting new names or pronouns. I haven’t heard of any staff or teachers complying with these rules yet, but the transphobic posturing is happening, and just knowing that the rules are not there to protect the transgender kids must add to their mental health burden.

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Protect yourself this year.

Armed Queer is A Safe Queer.

If you are old enough, vote. They want you doomer pills and demoralized. I still think we have a good chance of keeping the orange swastika out of office.

But even if we were slated to lose, (which I don't think that we are)for no other reason then spite. just because it would piss off the ppl who wish to oppress us, don't lay down.

stay vigilant and militant.

Love and Solidarity Comrades 🏳️‍🌈♥️🏳️‍⚧️✊

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