Anti-Trans Campaign Against Spanberger In Virginia Gov Race Is Failing. New Poll Shows Why: People Don't Care.
A new poll released in the Virginia governors race shows that the anti-trans attack ads led by Republican Earle-Sears is failing: Spanberger is up 10, and people don't care about trans issues.
The Virginia governor’s race is heating up, and one topic has been front and center in the political ad wars: transgender issues. The contest pits Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger against current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. While Spanberger has centered her campaign on the economic fallout of federal cuts and the rising cost of living for Virginia families, Earle-Sears has saturated the airwaves with millions of dollars in anti-trans ads. Now, new polling shows Spanberger pulling ahead—while also revealing that transgender issues sit at the very bottom of voter concerns in the commonwealth.
A new Hill/Emerson College poll shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 10 points overall, a significant margin. Among independent voters, the gap widens even further, with Spanberger up by 19 points. The poll also offers important insight into why Spanberger may be pulling ahead. When asked about the issues that have played an outsized role in this campaign, large majorities ranked the economy, education, and healthcare as top concerns, with between 80 and 90 percent saying these issues were important. By contrast, the majority of respondents said that transgender issues were unimportant—the only issue in the race to receive such a rating.
You can see the results here:
When looking at the crosstabs, the dynamic becomes clearer: transgender issues are unlikely to drive the outcome in Virginia in the direction of Earle-Sears. While a majority of voters overall find the issue unimportant, those who do prioritize it are not necessarily aligned with Earle-Sears. Many of them likely consider it important because they support transgender rights. In fact, 56 percent of Democrats said transgender issues are important—a higher share than Republicans. Independents, meanwhile, overwhelmingly shrug off the issue, with 61 percent calling it unimportant. That lack of concern helps explain why independents are breaking so strongly for Spanberger who has focused instead on core issues like the economy and healthcare.
Despite the polling, Earle-Sears has leaned heavily on anti-trans attack ads. In September alone, she spent $2 million on them—more than on any other issue in the race. One spot that blanketed Virginia’s airwaves recycled tactics from the 2024 campaign, declaring that Spanberger was for “they/them” and flashing images of transgender and gender-nonconforming Biden officials, some of the very same figures targeted in Republican attack ads in the 2024 cycle.
Now that Earle-Sears is slipping in the polls, some Republican strategists are questioning her methods. Former Republican Virginia Lt. Governor Bill Bolling posted on Facebook, “Winsome Earle Sears is out with a new TV ad. Anyone want to guess what it’s about? You guessed it, another ad about transgender issues! Look, I don’t support biological males participating in girl’s sports, and I certainly don’t support letting biological males use girl’s restrooms or locker rooms, but is this the only issue the Sears campaign has to talk about? What about jobs and the economy? What about education, health care and transportation? I think these are the issues Virginians care most about. Does Sears have anything to offer on these issues?”
Many political strategists will be watching Virginia closely. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin made anti-trans campaigning the centerpiece of his run, helping usher in a new era of political focus on the issue after he won the governor’s seat. If Virginia was once a bellwether for the effectiveness of those tactics, it could now be a bellwether for their decline. Voters who once responded to outrage over transgender people may now be feeling the sting of the policies that followed—policies that did little to improve the economy, education, or cost of living. If Earle-Sears fails to ride the same playbook to victory, it won’t just be a blow to Republicans banking on anti-trans politics. It will also undercut Democrats who argue that sacrificing transgender rights is the only way to win.
“people don’t care about trans issues”
Trans people do, people who know trans people care, and people that love them do too. But they’re so few in numbers. To be so unfairly defamed and disparaged… characterized in dehumanized, used merely as a political punching bag is a travesty.
Trans Rights are human rights, it’s inhuman to abandon them.
Unfortunately for us, the agenda for instance is a two-edged sword. The public won't get whipped up by anti-trans hysteria. But neither will they take into account how there vote my harm trans people. We need to overcome their apathy to win them over as true allies.